Warnings About the Eurozone

The Republicans can blame President Obama or do-nothing Ben Bernanke for all the economic problems, but this mess in the Eurozone gets worse week after week, and while you can possibly put blame on the Bush Administration and Wall Street for starting the crisis in Europe, this is also a political problem that only those countries can solve. However, while we wait for that to happen, the angst and fear emanating from the Eurozone make the markets seem unstable even on a good day, and every weekend there is some dire warning just before the Monday opening. This week is no different.

A few weeks ago, Mario Draghi, European Central Bank President, made a speech promising to do "whatever it takes" to save the Euro. But his words didn't calm the markets, which instead reacted negatively. They just aren't buying what he is selling, so to speak. Then he spoke again last Thursday, to mixed reviews.

"It's pointless to bet against the Euro," he said.


Can Draghi Turn the EU Ship Around?

Draghi, when he spoke late last week in Frankfurt, did not step away from his sweeping “whatever it takes” reassurance of the week before. In fact, he reaffirmed that the ECB would enter the bond markets to keep sovereign borrowing rates down. And he put this every which way he could. The central bank would “undertake outright open-market operations of a size adequate to reach its objective.” Interest rates, he said later, “that are related to fears of the reversibility of the euro are unacceptable, and they need to be addressed in a fundamental manner.”

What changed? Nothing of consequence. Draghi spoke a little more technocratically, offering details and leaving behind the billboard headlines. He implicitly acknowledged a target yield on European sovereign debt. That amounts to another commitment to whatever it takes.

In the meantime, Germany’s central bank president, Jens Weidmann, repeated that Germany was against the ECB’s latest thinking about bond buying.

Meanwhile: Italy's President is in a panic, and sees the Euro collapsing:

Mario Monti Sees Euro Alliance Dissolving

Monti, in an interview with Germany’s Der Spiegel magazine published yesterday, said that disagreements within the 17- nation euro area are detracting from the policy response to the debt crisis and undermining the future of the European Union.

“The tensions that have accompanied the euro zone in the past years are already showing signs of a psychological dissolution of Europe,” Monti told Der Spiegel. While he backed the ECB’s willingness to address “severe malfunctioning” in the government bond market, Monti said the problems “have to be solved quickly now so that there’s no further uncertainty about the euro zone’s ability to overcome the crisis.”

. . . Monti told Spiegel that he intends to stay in office until April 2013, when Italy is due to hold elections, and he hopes he “can save Italy from financial ruin until then, with the moral support of some European friends, and Germany foremost. But I say very clearly: moral support, not financial.”

An article reprinted on CNBC from Financial Times hints that Spain might actually be leaving the Eurozone:

Wall Street Warned of Possible Euro Exit

The eurozone continues to be the predominant concern of US bank executives, ahead of the faltering US recovery. Last summer the worsening of the eurozone crisis produced wild swings in US banks’ stock prices and led the Securities and Exchange Commission to demand they provide more disclosure of assets in Spain, Greece, Italy, Ireland and Portugal.

. . . Last week the speculation on whether Mario Draghi, European Central Bank president, would take more aggressive action to tackle the crisis produced further gyrations in US stock prices.

One senior Wall Street executive said his bank was approaching derivatives counterparties to say: “‘We’ve got this contract, it’s in euros, what I want to know is in the event that Spain were to be redenominated are we going to end up being adversaries on this or can we just agree that this is a euro contact? Let’s just move it to London law so we each agree that we know where we stand.’

World Markets Watching Spain

For a long time, market watchers have predicted that Spain might be the next economy to crumble after Greece fell apart and needed a bail-out. Don't you hate it when the doomsayers are right? It just doesn't bode well for the world economy to see all this instability in Europe, and unfortunately it's nowhere near over because Italy is next in line. The pain continues, and could leave the rest of Europe ~ and the world ~ overwhelmed.

 Ezra Klein on Rachel Maddow

. . . If you're picking one indicator to watch to see if it was going to survive or fall, you would pick Spanish bond yields because it would be bad if Greece had to leave the euro, but it would be survivable. There is no world where Spain goes down and the euro endures. If Spain goes down, the euro is going down. Spanish bond yields, the thing you need to remember is the higher a bond yield is, the higher a country has to pay when they borrow money.
Spain can't afford to borrow the money necessary to finance itself, and the Eurozone is going down. and that means our economy might be going down, too.
Well, Spanish bond yields have kept going up. This is way above the level which Spain and the euro can survive.
Tonight's Ezra Klein challenge is to explain why this happened. . . . Austerity isn't working! . . . Spain has been doing what the Eurozone has asked them to do, austerity, cutting budgets. They're trying. everybody agrees they have been a good faith actor. but that treatment is driving them deeper and deeper into recession, and these bond yields are the market . . . saying 'this is not working.'

Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

From MSN Money UK:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, after falling 239 points earlier in the day, ended down 101.11 at 12,721.46. Yields for US government bonds sank to record lows as traders sought the safety of American debt.

Borrowing costs rose sharply for Spain and Italy after news that the Spanish economy contracted by 0.4% in the second quarter. Falling economic output makes it more difficult for Spain to deal with its debts. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 12.14 points to 1,350.52. The Nasdaq composite index dropped 35.15 points to 2,890.15.

"Increases in Spanish borrowing costs have brought back questions about the health of Europe," said Guy LeBas, chief fixed income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott in Philadelphia. "That's driven a flight to safety."

More Scary Stuff from Bloomberg

Now, that worst-case scenario has re-emerged. The catalyst is Greece. Over the weekend, Germany’s economy minister, Philipp Roesler, said he doubted that Greece would keep the fiscal promises it made in return for its bailout. If help for Greece is cut off, a disorderly exit from the euro becomes much more likely. For the rest of Europe and the world, that’s alarming less in its own right than because of the risk of contagion.

Spain would probably be the first to suffer, and as things stand there’s nothing to stop the situation from unraveling. With anxiety about Greece rising again, it was reported that Spain’s regional governments were seeking bailouts from Madrid, threatening to add to the central government’s debt burden. The Spanish economy is contracting, the latest figures showed last week. At the same time, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy sparked protests when he said he would press on with further fiscal tightening, which is likely to slow growth even further.

On Monday, Spain’s 10-year bond yields rose for the first time above 7.5 percent. Rates sustained at this level are unaffordable and, in effect, make the Spanish government insolvent. Disturbingly, yields rose sharply at shorter maturities, too, and the cost of insuring against a Spanish default set a record -- both signs that confidence is evaporating.

Spain is the fourth biggest economy in the euro area. If it has to be bailed out, the EFSF and ESM will be overwhelmed. Then comes Italy, whose 10-year bond yield just climbed to a six- month high, remaining well above 6 percent. That’s no less crippling than Spain’s cost of borrowing, because Italy’s debt burden is far greater.

If Europe’s governments continue to stand aside, they will sink not only Greece, Italy and Spain, but the wider European and global economies as well. Europe’s leaders must either greatly expand the ESM and start to use it more proactively, or urge and empower the ECB to buy or somehow guarantee distressed sovereigns’ debt. One way or another, bond yields have to be capped at a supportable level.

Greeks Go Conservative, May Stay in Eurozone

The Greek Elections are over now and the right-leaning New Democracy government won led by Antonis Samaras, who spoke of "a new national unity in a European direction." They still have to form a government and prove stability to the rest of Europe, but this is an encouraging outcome if Greece wants to remain in the Eurozone.




From MSNBC:

Sunday's vote was seen as crucial for Europe and the world, since it could determine whether Greece was forced to leave the joint euro currency, a move that could have potentially catastrophic consequences for other ailing European nations and the global economy. As central banks stood ready to intervene in case of financial turmoil, Greece held its second national election in six weeks after an inconclusive ballot on May 6.

The Eurozone's finance ministers said the outcome should allow for the formation of a government that will carry the support of the electorate to bring Greece back on a path of sustainable growth.

"The Eurogroup acknowledges the considerable efforts already made by the Greek citizens and is convinced that continued fiscal and structural reforms are Greece's best guarantee to overcome the current economic and social challenges and for a more prosperous future of Greece in the euro area," the group said in a statement.

"We congratulate the Greek people on conducting their election in this difficult time," the White House said in a statement. "We hope this election will lead quickly to the formation of a new government that can make timely progress on the economic challenges facing the Greek people."

Uncertainty in the Eurozone Confuses Markets

As I wrote a few weeks ago, even if the Germans kick Greece out of the Eurozone and they go back to the drachma and a future of austerity, there are other countries in the same shape waiting in the wings. Spain, Portugal, Italy, Ireland . . . know one really knows where the ripples with stop. It's a dangerous time for the world economy. Yesterday the markets seemed happy that Spain will get a $125 billion bail-out - today, not so much.

This article describes the volatile situation succinctly:

Spain, Italy in market storm ahead of Greek vote
12 June 2012 | 14:45 | FOCUS News Agency

Madrid. Investors pounded Spanish and Italian debt on Tuesday, beset by grave doubts over a Spanish banking rescue and fears of a looming Greek exit from the eurozone, AFP reported.
Despite eurozone powers striking a deal Saturday to extend Spain a banking sector rescue loan of up 100 billion euros ($125 billion), the alarm gripping bond markets showed no sign of relaxing.
Two major concerns stood out: doubts over Spain's outlook even with the mega-loan and this Sunday's Greek elections, which in a worst-case scenario could send Athens back to the drachma.
It was impossible to say how things may turn out, said Edward Hugh, an independent economist based in Barcelona.

Pundits Slam Greece as Euro Exit Looms

Considering some of the Greek-bashing going on in Europe, you wouldn't know that other countries such as France, Spain, Portugal, Italy, and Ireland might have lots of trouble if Greece makes a disorderly exit from the Euro. Who will the pundits blame when Greece is no longer the scapegoat?

Last week Christine Lagarde, the International Monetary Fund chief, insulted the Greeks by implying they were all tax dodgers. She told Guardian UK:

"Do you know what? As far as Athens is concerned, I also think about all those people who are trying to escape tax all the time. All these people in Greece who are trying to escape tax."
Even more than she thinks about all those now struggling to survive without jobs or public services?
"I think of them equally. And I think they should also help themselves collectively."
How?
"By all paying their tax. Yeah."
It sounds as if she's essentially saying to the Greeks and others in Europe, you've had a nice time and now it's payback time.
"That's right." She nods calmly. "Yeah."

That statement brought an onslaught of criticism to Lagarde's Facebook Page where she later posted an apology:

As I have said many times before, I am very sympathetic to the Greek people and the challenges they are facing. . . . An important part of this effort is that everyone should carry their fair share of the burden, especially the most privileged and especially in terms of paying their taxes. . . .

Bill Mitchell, an Australian economist saw Lagarde's statement as more European bullying towards the Greek people, especially from the IMF. He wrote in his blog:

. . . the European banking system interacted with the bailout funds to benefit the German banks. The benefits dwarf the amount of funds Greece has received.
So when Lagarde talks about payback time it is clear that she is continuing the IMF tradition of bullying the weak and vulnerable to benefit the rich and strong.
. . . Remember, that Greece was not in crisis before the Euro was imposed. Its crisis is the result of lax regulation by EU officials interacting with a flawed monetary system design.

Unfortunately, other Europeans continue to enjoy some Greek bashing, like this so-called "Wealth Manager" Nick Dewhirst from Integral Asset Management who echoed Lagarde's condescending judgment when interviewed by CNBC today (my transcript):

Dewhirst: I think the easiest way to understand it is at the ordinary human level. Nations are just very large numbers of human beings. And it's like a club, so I was down at my Sailing Club . . . talking to a few friendly Greeks among others and the attitude is very simple. As a club member you have to obey by certain rules. Lots of people cheat a little bit. They get away with it. Some people cheat a helluva lot. They get away with it until everybody notices. And that's the key difference between now and a couple of years ago.
Every German voter, every Slovak, Finn, and every other savings nation voter now knows that cheating is not just the occasional email joke he's got about Greece, but a way of life.

Question: What's the real impact of Greece leaving the eurozone as you say on June 18th?

Dewhirst: Probably like Y2K. A lot less than everybody thinks.

Question: But there are so many unknown unknown-unknowns...

Dewhirst: Um, I don't think so. I wrote a piece in December 2010 predicting this would happen and predicting how it would happen. We would have a bank holiday . . . and during that period they would have to pass a simple law amending one clause of the European treaties they signed. And then your accounts would be frozen. And everyone would come in on Monday and say 'they've stolen my money - they can't do that!' But they can! They've just done it and it's been done before. It was done in Argentina in 2001.

Question: But isn't the concern here the knock on impact through the banking system, because there would be quite significant implications for the Greek banks? The European financial system is very interconnected . . . Banks are holding some debt as well....
Question: Because if the new currency in Greece devalues 50-70% and they've lost that amoung of their wealth, why wouldn't every person in Spain, in Italy, or anywhere else that this could potentially happen and put it into a safer currency, thus perpetuating the bank runs?

Dewhirst: Um, that's very sensible, and indeed, I think about 30% of the Greek bank deposits have all ready disappeared that way. And 8% of those in other countries have done the same sort of thing. That's true.

Dewhirst was also quoted by CNBC as saying:

“The euro zone is a club but you get cheaters who get away with it until everyone finds out and at that point you need to remove them otherwise everyone will cheat. It’s better for Greece to leave," . . .
“The basic question is that a German has to increase working from 65 to 67 and that is to pay for Greeks retiring at 50. The 17th of June is the perfect opportunity to say either 'we’ll behave' or 'we’ll carry on cheating.

And Dewhirst continues his undiplomatic rant with a flippant joke:

“Greeks would no longer be able to afford German cars and Germans would be able to buy Greek villas and the young unemployed in Greece would have jobs as tourism booms. The best thing would be that they [Greeks] could blame the foreigners."

Unbelievable, and it's no wonder they left that last bit out of the video below. Let's hope Mr. Dewhirst never makes a bad investment or loses his wealth (*cough* JP Morgan *cough*). Woe betide him if he's ever part of the 99% in any country. He might be hungry enough to eat his words.

Economics Round-Up

CNBC Slideshow: Europe's Real Estate Ghost Towns

Euro Tumbles Due to Wild Weekend Elections 

Anti-Austerity Ballot Backlash 

France, Greece, and the End of the Euro 

 Continued German support for the single currency relies on acceptance of the austerity imposed by the fiscal compact. Both France and Greece have now resoundingly rejected the old political consensus, making the future of the single currency more uncertain than ever.

 Greeks Reject "Barbarism" of Economic Austerity

Alexis Tsipras became the surprise package of the Greek election by telling Angela Merkel to get lost.
“The people of Europe can no longer be reconciled with the bailouts of barbarism,” Tsipras, 37, said on state-run NET TV late yesterday after his Syriza party unexpectedly came second in the country’s election. “European leaders, and especially Ms. Merkel, should realize that her policies have undergone a crushing defeat.”

Germany's Merkel Defends the Euro and Austerity

Ms Merkel has called for giving Athens time to "analyse the election result" and determine "which groupings are possible for a new government".
She acknowledged that the budget cutting imposed on the debt-mired country in exchange for two separate rescue packages was "difficult" but said it "nevertheless must continue".

Socialist Hollande Defeats Sarkozy in France

“After 35 years of politics, after 10 years at the highest levels of government, after five years as head of state, I will become a Frenchman among the French,” Sarkozy said last night, conceding defeat.
With joblessness at a 12-year high and public debt at a record, the electorate proved unwilling to forgive the 57-year- old lawyer for foibles such as celebrating his 2007 victory at a chic Paris restaurant and a holiday on a billionaire’s yacht, making the election an anti-Sarkozy vote.
“If the French had jobs and more money in their pockets, they’d be confident and ready to forgive,” said Laurent Dubois, a professor at the Institute of Political Studies in Paris.

 Austerity Could Be Over for Europe

“Immediate austerity, in recessionary economies, simply doesn’t work – a point apparently better understood by many European voters than those they have elected,” said David Kelly, chief market strategist at J.P. Morgan.
In less than two years, voters in seven European countries have thrown out leaders or ruling parties.
What Europe needs now is some “enlightened macro-economic approach,” according to Mr. Kelly. And that means less pressure on the austerity pedal, he argued.