Nate Silver, Polls and Arithmatic

Well, Nate Silver was right. Exactly right. He couldn't have been more right. His Monte Carlo models for 2012 accurately predicted the number of electoral votes each candidate would receive, as well as which states would go blue for Obama. Well-done, Sir. You have now become part of election history, and I'm glad you also stuck to your guns when others were taunting you and with Politico calling you a "one-term celebrity." I guess they should have said "Won Term Celebrity."

What's important is that you get the last laugh. :) I think you'll be around in the next election. I'm not sure about the hacks at Breitbart or those guys from Politico. What were their names again?

Excerpt of Silver's Book "The Signal and the Noise" via Daily Beast

Political news, and especially the important news that really affects the campaign, proceeds at an irregular pace. But news coverage is produced every day. Most of it is filler, packaged in the form of stories that are designed to obscure its unimportance. Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.

Snark Amendment: Pundits Wagering War on Nate Silver
Previous Posts on Nate Silver and the Polls



The Romney camp was "shellshocked" over the fact that the Republican-leaning polls were the ones that were skewed, since the party-line had been the opposite for months.

Rush, Dick and Rove Skewed into Frenzy by Polls

In the last days of the campaign, people were coming out of the woodwork to predict a landslide, which had nothing to do with the reality of the polls, most of which showed Obama ahead at that time. I gathered up their quotes and tweets here:

Snark Amendment: Republicans Predict Romney Landslide

Yeah, the GOP got a landslide, all right. They are going to be digging their way out of it for years to come!



I think one reason ordinary voters drank that Kool-Aid in addition to the Romney Camp, was that some spineless pundits in the mainstream were hedging bets on the outside chance that all the Democratic pollsters were A. Delusional and B. Liars. For instance, CNN kept talking about the "razor thin margin" which somehow gave the advantage to Mitt instead of Obama, when their own internal polling showed otherwise. Chris Cillizza at Washington Post moved Ohio into the "toss-up" column just because Romney needed it so much to win.

The Dems who took a "poll of polls" approach and checked in with statisticians and oddsmakers were not nearly as confused. Yes, we were also nervous and scared about the unknown outcome, yes, but we were not AS confused about the data. And in the end, this election was all about the math.

Bookmark these websites for future elections - math works!

538.com - Nate Silver
ElectoralVote.com
Princeton - Sam Wang
PredictWise


Below is a list compiled by professor Costas Panagopoulos, Ph.D. of Fordham University. It shows which pollsters did a good job of accurately predicting the election outcome. It's a good idea to save this list for the next election so you can avoid the polls from CNN down to AP because those were the most biased and least accurate.

Fordham University List of Pollsters Ranked from Most Accurate to Least Accurate

Most (22) polls overestimated Romney support, while six (6)
overestimated Obama strength (indicated with a * below), but none of the 28 national preelection polls I examined had a significant partisan bias.
The following list ranks the 28 organizations by the predictive accuracy of their final, national pre-election estimates (as reported on pollster.com).

1. Ipsos/Reuters
2. YouGov
3. PPP (D)
3. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP
4. Angus-Reid*
5. ABC/WP*
6. Pew Research*
6. Hartford Courant/UConn*
7. Purple Strategies
8. NBC/WSJ
8. CBS/NYT
8. YouGov/Economist
9. UPI/CVOTER
10. IBD/TIPP
11. Democracy Corps (D)*
12. CNN/ORC
12. Monmouth/SurveyUSA
12. Politico/GWU/Battleground
12. FOX News
12. Washington Times/JZ Analytics
12. Newsmax/JZ Analytics
12. American Research Group
12. Gravis Marketing
13. National Journal*
14. Rasmussen
14. Gallup
15. NPR
16. AP/GfK

Repubs Know Ryan Got a Whoopin'

Some of the GOP reactions to the Biden - Ryan Debate last night are priceless.

I miss Jim Lehrer. @newshour #debate
— Karl Rove (@KarlRove) October 12, 2012

Yeah, I bet, LOL. Lehrer was a slug compared to Martha Raddatz. And while your boy Ryan tried to talk as fast as the Music Man, Biden managed to get more words in than Obama.

Sarah Palin had to say something, of course, and it was actually a sort of compliment made in Palin's Alaskinesque - Northern Shaman way: Joe Biden is the mighty musk ox of the tundra:

Via Mediaite

"Really tough format, Sean, for someone like a Paul Ryan or anybody else up against Joe Biden, when the moderator allowed one candidate to absolutely run roughshod over the conversation, over the opponent," Palin told Fox News Channel’s Sean Hannity on Thursday night. "That’s a tough format. It reminded me ... of watching a musk ox run across the tundra with somebody underfoot. And in this case, when it came to style, it was Paul Ryan underfoot because of the moderator allowing Biden to do the interrupting, to kind of take control of the conversation."

The RNC released an unintentionally funny video with ominous music playing as Joe Biden laughs his head off. I dare anyone to watch this without giggling or at least smiling. Great job, Brownie - I mean Reince Priebus!


Peggy Noonan, who took Republican candidate Mitt Romney to the woodshed multiple times just a few weeks ago, now has jumped back on the GOP loyalty train, and is spinning like there's no tomorrow. She won't say that Biden won, but she won't say that Ryan lost either:

For the second time in two weeks, the Democrat came out and defeated himself. online.wsj.com/article/SB1000…

— Peggy Noonan (@Peggynoonannyc) October 12, 2012

In both cases the Republican was strong and the Democrat somewhat disturbing. online.wsj.com/article/SB1000…

— Peggy Noonan (@Peggynoonannyc) October 12, 2012

Another way to say it is the old man tried to patronize the kid and the kid stood his ground. The old man pushed, and the kid pushed back.

— Peggy Noonan (@Peggynoonannyc) October 12, 2012

Tea Partier Erick Erickson wrote on Red State that Joe Biden spent half an hour "Braying like a Biblical Donkey," whatever that means.

Erick also went on Soledad O'Brien's show slamming the moderator, Martha Raddatz.
And remember while reading the following transcript that Erickson works for CNN now, so he is one of the so-called "journalists" he implies are covering for Raddatz. Also he seems to be insulting Soledad, who is his colleague now - ugh. In his comments he echoes Karl Rove because he misses Jim Lehrer who "got out of the way" and let Romney run roughshod over Obama. Ha - not so fun when the shoe is on the other foot, as it was last night.

CNN Transcript

ERICKSON: . . . I did think it was interesting in how much Martha Raddatz pressured Paul Ryan on specific policies and specifics of his proposals, and she didn't do that so much with Joe Biden. It's striking that for all the lack of specifics she may be getting from the Romney campaign, you're not getting them any more from the Obama campaign for what they're going to do for the next four years.

O'BRIEN: You know, you tweeted that about Martha. You tweeted this. I'm sorry, but I think Martha did an atrocious job as a moderator, lost control of both sides repeatedly.

ERICKSON: I absolutely think she did.

O'BRIEN: I think you've lost your mind.

ERICKSON: I think you're a journalists and journalists are going to give her cover. I thought she was horrible.

O'BRIEN: I've never met her before today. She walked by. I said hi. In terms of information --

ERICKSON: Look, you've got to --

O'BRIEN: Let me just finish and I'll let you respond. Hang on a second.

ERICKSON: -- with Joe Biden and Paul Ryan.

O'BRIEN: Right. For me a moderator who let's them go at it each other a little bit so you can get the argument but then jumps in and moves it to the right direction that's very helpful as someone who was just watching. I got to watch it in the hall. Why do you disagree?

ERICKSON: Because I think she only interrupted to move the debate forward when Paul Ryan was speaking. She rarely did it with Joe Biden. She let Joe Biden do the interruption. Her wheel-house was foreign policy. Two-thirds of the debate was on foreign policy. And, you know, when you're debating foreign policy in a vice presidential debate, I guess that's all well and good but we have this unemployment number, jobs decline and I just think moderators shouldn't make the focus of the debate their wheel-house.

O'BRIEN: I'm going to disagree with you on that. I thought she did a terrific job, thought she was super strong. Did you think Jim Lehrer did a good job? We can disagree.

ERICKSON: At least -- I think with Jim Lehrer, at least he got out of the way and let them talk. I think when Joe Biden was so aggressive last night you need the moderator to intervene a little more. With Jim Lehrer, I thought he was asleep for most of the debate but wound up being substantive. I haven't been impressed with the moderators so far this year. But Candy Crowley will hit it out of the park, I guarantee.

O'BRIEN: Thank you, Erick.

Republicans Running From Romney-Ryan

Republicans are scampering away from the Romney/Ryan ticket like rats from a sinking ship. Sarah Palin may actually be glad someday that she was shut out of the Republican Convention in Tampa, which should be a "night to remember" resembling the sinking of the Titanic.

Story from Politico

Away from the cameras, and with all the usual assurances that people aren’t being quoted by name, there is an unmistakable consensus among Republican operatives in Washington: Romney has taken a risk with Ryan that has only a modest chance of going right — and a huge chance of going horribly wrong.

. . . “I think it’s a very bold choice. And an exciting and interesting pick. It’s going to elevate the campaign into a debate over big ideas. It means Romney-Ryan can run on principles and provide some real direction and vision for the Republican Party. And probably lose. Maybe big,” said former President George W. Bush senior adviser Mark McKinnon.

. . . “Very not helpful down ballot — very,” said one top Republican consultant.

“This is the day the music died,” one Republican operative involved in 2012 races said after the rollout. The operative said that every House candidate now is racing to get ahead of this issue.

Another strategist emailed midway through Romney and Ryan’s first joint event Saturday: “The good news is that this ticket now has a vision. The bad news is that vision is basically just a chart of numbers used to justify policies that are extremely unpopular.”

Right Wing Heads Explode Over Romneycare Gaffe

Apoplexy is probably the correct scientific term for the reactions of the far right over yesterday's statements of Andrea Saul, Romney's spokesperson.

Saul committed the sin of telling the truth, which is that Mitt Romney is proud of his achievements as Governor of Massachusetts, including the dreaded "Romneycare" insurance plan. But we can't just blame Andrea Saul since Romney also talked about his "experience with insurance" on the same day.

Saul was attempting to give an official response to an ad from the Obama campaign, about a GST Steel worker who lost his job thanks to a forced Bain closedown of the mill. Later he lost his wife to cancer, and blames it on their lack of health care.

When Mitt Romney and Bain closed the plant, I lost my healthcare, and my family lost their healthcare. And a short time after that my wife became ill . . . and I took her up to the Jackson County Hospital and admitted her for pneumonia and that’s when they found the cancer and by then it was stage four/It was, there was nothing they could do for her. And she passed away in 22 days.
~ Joe Soptic, former employee of GST Steel

Romney Press Secretary Andrea Saul responded on Fox News

“To that point, if people had been in Massachusetts, under Governor Romney’s health care plan, they would have had health care."

Romney also mentioned his Massachusetts plan on the campaign trail in some kind of lame attempt to take it back from Obama, possibly the "etch-a-sketch" moment as he tries to move back to the center. Notice how the crowd claps tentatively, as if confused. I can understand that. The rightwing talking point is that "all health care is bad" even if you need it desperately and want it for your family. Major cognitive dissonance.

But basically Romney's constantly shifting views on Obamacare are the real problem, not anything that Andrea Saul said, since apparently she was just backing up the candidate. How can Romney be against Obamacare, but pro-Romneycare when they are basically one in the same?


Heads exploded with outrage:

OMG.This might just be the moment Mitt Romney lost the election.Wow. politico.com/news/stories/0…
— Erick Erickson (@EWErickson) August 8, 2012

What conservatives are doing re Andrea Saul's comment is the same as how you housebreak your dog. Romney needs to know not to go there.
— Dan McLaughlin (@baseballcrank) August 8, 2012

This isn't about health care! They're out there saying that your guy killed this woman! And your answer is 'well, she'd a had healthcare if she lived in Massachusetts'?
. . . Andrea Saul’s appearance on Fox was a potential gold mine for Obama supporters. They can say, ‘Romneycare was the basis for our health care.'
~ Rush Limbaugh quoted by TPM

Spokeswoman Saul said these words that were followed by a thunderclap of hands smacking foreheads around the nation.
. . . Lord, lord, lord! The last thing conservatives want to talk about, even less than Romney's tax returns (because at least there, they have a common enemy in Sen. Harry Reid), is Romneycare's similarity to Obamacare. Saul's comment turns Romney into the conservative's worst nightmare! Their main complaint about Romney all the way back to the primary season was his implementation of Obamacare on a state level would make him an ineffective messenger on repealing the president's legislation.
~ Bill Schmalfeld on Digital.com

Bob Shrum explained it best on Hardball:

Today they endorsed in essence the central idea of the Affordable Care Act. They've done it because they're in a lot of trouble. . . . they've lost the Long Hot Summer, they've ended up in a situation where Romney's upside-down in his favorable/unfavorable. These Bain ads are really hurting him. And they come up with this answer. It seemed opportunistic, but it was stupid. . . . When you run as somebody you're not, it's hard to keep straight who you're supposed to be.

Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Next, Ann Coulter's head exploded while ranting to Sean Hannity of Faux News, and she called for Romney to fire Saul as spokesperson, which hasn't happened yet. Stay tuned for further developments.

“Her response was not that it was despicable, not that Bain… that Romney had left Bain five years earlier or the woman died five years after the plant closed and didn’t even get her insurance from her husband, her response was, ‘Well, if she had lived in Massachusetts with Mitt Romney’s health care plan, she would have had health insurance.’ Anyone who donates to Mitt Romney, and I mean the big donors, ought to say if Andrea Saul isn’t fired and off the campaign tomorrow, they are not giving another dime, because it is not worth fighting for this man if this is the kind of spokesman he has… There’s no point in you doing your show, there’s no point in going to the convention and pushing for this man if he’s employing morons like this. This ad is the turning point and she has nearly snatched victory from the jaws of defeat! She should be off the campaign.”

They had a good discussion of Coulter's hissy fit on MSNBC's Last Word, making the point that if Andrea Saul has to resign over this, why not Eric Ferhnstrom, who coined the infamous "Etch-A-Sketch" phrase earlier this year in a major gaffe? Isn't it possible that Saul's statement is part of Ferhnstrom's strategy to move to the center anyway?

And what about that guy named Gorka, who told reporters to "kiss his a$$" at a "holy site" in Poland. Or maybe Dan Senor, the so-called "foreign policy adviser" who gave Romney some really bad advice about his Israeli speech that ticked off the Palestinians.

If Romney fires one, he might have to fire the whole gang. And while he likes firing people who provided services to him, I don't think he can really overturn his entire campaign at this point. People on Twitter are even joking that Romney should just fire himself. LOL

 

Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Congressman's Brain Explodes Over Contraception

Contraception - what a concept! No one in the United States has ever practiced contraception, right? Only selfish women benefit from it, not the noble men of our land who all want six or seven children that they have to support for 18 years plus college and beyond. No one benefits except . . .

No, I can't go on with that. Here's the story: when new rules that insurance companies must cover contraception were enacted today, a Congressman said some really stupid bu!!sh*t. Put this in the "you-can't-make-this-stuff-up file. Why would anyone in their right mind say something so bizarre? Oh . . . never mind . . .

Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

From Huffington Post

Criticizing President Barack Obama's health care reform law on Wednesday, Rep. Mike Kelly (R-Pa.) likened the requirement that private insurance plans provide contraception coverage to two of the most devastating attacks on American soil.

"I know in your mind, you can think of the times America was attacked," he said at a press conference on Capitol Hill. "One is Dec. 7, that's Pearl Harbor Day. The other is Sept. 11, and that's the day the terrorists attacked. I want you to remember Aug. 1, 2012, the attack on our religious freedom. That is a day that will live in infamy, along with those other dates."

Wednesday marked the first day private insurers must include birth control coverage without charging a co-pay in their plans, per requirements in the Affordable Care Act. The change will affect most women on private health plans, with some exceptions. More than a dozen Republican members of the House of Representatives, mostly freshmen, held a press conference to blast the law for what they said were violations of religious freedom.

Boehner Bomb - Romney Loved by Only 5%

John Boehner has dropped a bombshell. I'm not sure why we are just now hearing about this, but Boehner said it on June 30th in Wheeling, West Virginia, at a fundraiser. So this isn't just payback for the Eric Fehrnstrom snafu last week over the word "tax" to describe Obama's health care plan.

I think it's huge when the Speaker of the House dumps on the presidential candidate from his own party. Incredible!

Via Roll Call

The Ohio Republican made the remarks when an unidentified woman asked during a question-and-answer session: “Can you make me love Mitt Romney?”

“No,” Boehner said. “Listen, we’re just politicians. I wasn’t elected to play God. The American people probably aren’t going to fall in love with Mitt Romney. I’ll tell you this: 95 percent of the people that show up to vote in November are going to show up in that voting booth, and they are going to vote for or against Barack Obama.

“Mitt Romney has some friends, relatives and fellow Mormons ... some people that are going to vote for him. But that’s not what this election is about. This election is going to be a referendum on the president’s failed economic policies.

“Mitt Romney believes, just like we do, that if we’re going to get the economy back, if we’re going to put the American people back to work, we need to fix the tax code, we need to stop the regulatory juggernaut that’s going on in Washington and we need to fix our economy. Solid guy, he’s going to do a great job, even if you don’t fall in love with him.”