Understanding the Polar Vortex

Here's why most of the United States has been in the Deep Freeze this winter:

From the New York Post

“The Big Chill,” NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center post read. “Blistering cold air from the Arctic plunged southward this winter, breaking US temperature records.”
“A persistent pattern of winds spins high above the Arctic in winter. The winds, known as the polar vortex, typically blow in a fairly tight circular formation. But in late December 2013 and early January 2014, the winds loosened and frigid Arctic air spilled farther south than usual, deep into the continental United States.”

NASA Video Explaining the Polar Vortex

New Hurricane Rules After Sandy

NOAA and the National Hurricane Center have been doing some soul-searching about how they handled Hurricane Sandy, the superstorm that devastated the Eastern Seabord. Now they realize it was a big mistake to change the storm's status just as it came ashore, telling local weather forecasters it was no longer a hurricane even though obviously there were hurricane force winds happening over a wide area. It's actually cringe-worthy that some guys far inland, no matter how well-meaning, thought they could just brush off a mega-storm onto local officials while trees were crashing, homes were being destroyed, electricity was failing, and the storm surge was flooding huge areas of New York and New Jersey. It really makes no sense and I'm glad they are fixing the problem.


From Accuweather: National Hurricane Center Modifies Hurricane Warning

Following the criticism of the National Hurricane Center's handling of Hurricane Sandy and the non-issuance of hurricane warnings north of North Carolina, it has been decided that the NHC will now have more flexibility in their policy regarding the issuance of advisories.

Beginning in 2013, the NHC will have the flexibility to issue multiple advisories on post-tropical cyclones for landfalling systems or close bypassers.

According to the NHC, this required a revision of the Hurricane Warning definition, which will now be as follows:

An announcement that sustained winds of 74 mph or higher are expected somewhere within the specified area in association with a tropical, sub-tropical, or post-tropical cyclone. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the warning is issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds. The warning can remain in effect when dangerously high water or a combination of dangerously high water and waves continue, even though winds may be less than hurricane force.

"The main issue is: we want people to get ready for hurricane conditions, and that's why we are changing the definition of hurricane warning to be a little more inclusive of other things than just a hurricane," Chris Landsea, Science and Operations Officer at the National Hurricane Center, told AccuWeather.com.

Additionally, the NHC eventually plans to begin differentiating between wind hazards and storm surge hazards.

"Sandy was not ideal, and the way we handled it was not right. But we're fixing it," Landsea told AccuWeather.com.

"We realize this was not satisfactory and we want to make it better for next year."

Sandy the "Frankenstorm" of the East

It's incredible that a storm can come along so late in the hurricane season and be described as either "The Perfect Storm" (as in the Storm of the Century in 1993) or even worse - "The Frankenstorm" because it is supposed to hit close to Halloween. There's also another "spin" on Sandy (pardon the pun) that it will become a "Hybrid Freak" thanks to an arctic cold front moving across the country that will merge into the tropical low.

All of it spells trouble for New Jersey north into New England next week. 

STATUS: Sandy remains a Category 2 hurricane, as of 10:30 p.m. Thursday
STRENGTH: Maximum sustained winds of 100 mph; 965 mb pressure
LOCATION: Center of the storm is between Cat Island and Eleuthera Island in the Bahamas, 105 miles east of Nassau in the Bahamas, as of 9 p.m. Thursday
SPEED & DIRECTION: Moving north-northwest at 17 mph
Source: National Hurricane Center



From NewJersey.com

. . . the forecast for the storm is highly complex, and has little to no historical comparison, according to David Robinson, the state climatologist at Rutgers University.

“It borders on rare to unprecedented on its potential,” he said. “This is a threat that should be taken seriously. I’m not suggesting people should run right now to the grocery store for your bread and milk, but it needs to be watched closely.”

A myriad of scenarios for how the situation will unfold exists, according to forecast guidance. Were Sandy to track inland just south of or on the New Jersey coast, major coastal flooding, hurricane force winds and torrential rain are all distinct possibilities. A track further to the north, in New England, and the Garden State may be spared some of the more severe impacts. Even the potential for Sandy to move out to sea (while the least likely) can’t be completely discounted at this point.

Because the ceiling of the storm’s impact is so high, forecasters and state officials are urging residents to monitor it closely. The threat of major coastal flooding, inland flooding and wind damage is very much in the realm of possibilities for New Jersey – a threat that should not be taken lightly, regardless of the outcome.