Repubs See the Glass More than Half-Full for Romney

pic by Matt Dawson


The Far Right is desperate to believe that the polls are much closer than is being reported by the "lamestream media." They believe the polls are actually neck and neck in the swing states and that the country is trending much redder rather than blue.

What does Adam say on Mythbusters?

"I reject your reality and substitute my own."

Now they even have their own Pollster trying to "Unskew" the polls.

From BuzzFeed

Dean Chambers, a blogger on Examiner.com who writes from his home in Duffield, Virginia, took that complaint a step further — producing wide Romney leads far beyond what the Republican's campaign or Republican pollsters have suggested is the case.
He created the site unskewedpolls.com, retooling national polling data this July after reading an ABC News/Washington Post poll that "just didn't look right." Looking at the internal data, Chambers saw that the polling unit had sampled more Democrats than Republicans.
"There's no way they can justify that sample," Chambers, 44, told BuzzFeed.
Since July, Chambers has re-weighted national polling data from organizations like Gallup, ARG, and the three networks, to fit the Rasmussen Reports partisan trends. Chambers has published 30 "unskewed" polls on his website and on examiner.com, a national network that pays independent bloggers on a wide range of subject by traffic. In the last month, Chambers's tooled polls have Romney up by seven or more points.

You can see what is wrong with this picture if you compare the Unskewed Poll with the latest snapshot of the country via ElectoralMap.com. To your basic Tea Partier, the country is much more red, the blue of the Democrats is diminishing, swing states only swing to the right, and of course - they win. The problem is that doesn't have much to do with reality. Mitt Romney is an unlikable candidate who makes three gaffes a day, and therefore President Obama will be reelected in just a few short weeks.

But this snapshot of GOP denial is one for the ages.

"Unskewed" Electoral Map Via Examiner


Nonpartisan Map from RealClearPolitics

The Republican Convention Condensed

pic via eatbloganddie
My collections of Twitter and Videos from each night on Snark Amendment:

RNC Night Three: Mitt's Big Moment
RNC Night Three: Introducing Mitt
Clint Eastwood Talks to Empty Chair in Tampa
RNC Night Two: Paul Ryan Center Stage
RNC Opening Night: One Hand Clapping for Lame Speeches


And in case you just can't stomach all that (who can blame you?):

Talking Points Memo ~ The Republican Convention in 100 Seconds (per day)






And finally this great Recap by ABC News from Night Three:

Nowhere to Run from the Scary Health Care

The other day Marco Rubio was being interviewed about health care and pointed out that Romneycare was different from Obamacare because you could just move away from it.

No, really, he said that.

NYMag: At Least You Can Flee It!

Romney "supported it on the state level. Which means if you didn’t like it in Massachusetts, you could move to another state," Rubio said on Bloomberg Television. "What are people supposed to do? Leave the United States now because of Barack Obama’s brilliant idea to sic the IRS on millions of people?

Now someone has made a hilarious video taking Rubio's idea to a logical conclusion.

Found via Political Carnival

Trayvon Martin UpDate: Perjury, Evidence, and Gun Law Activism

Lots of news in the Trayvon Martin case recently.
George Zimmerman is back in jail because lied about how much money he had in the bank and received an unfairly low bond. Now his wife has been charged with perjury in the case, and Judge Lester is showing no sympathy. Story from The Washington Post

Records show that in the days before the bond hearing, Shellie Zimmerman transferred $74,000 in eight smaller amounts ranging from $7,500 to $9,990, from her husband’s credit union account to hers, according to an arrest affidavit. It also shows that $47,000 was transferred from George Zimmerman’s account to his sister’s in the days before the bond hearing. . . . The affidavit also said jail call records show that George Zimmerman instructed her to “pay off all the bills,” including an American Express and Sam’s Club card.
. . . In bringing a motion to have Zimmerman’s bond revoked lead prosecutor Bernie De la Rionda complained “This court was led to believe they didn’t have a single penny. It was misleading and I don’t know what words to use other than it was a blatant lie.”
The judge agreed and ordered Zimmerman returned to jail where he has been since turning himself in on June 3. He didn’t perjure himself, but Lester said he knew his wife was lying.
“Does your client get to sit there like a potted plant and lead the court down the primrose path? That’s the issue,” Lester said in revoking Zimmerman’s bond. “He can’t sit back and obtain the benefit of a lower bond based upon those material falsehoods.”

This week, Judge Lester also ruled to release evidence including Trayvon's autopsy results. The only thing he is holding back are the names and addresses of witnesses.
Via The Grio

In his order, Judge Kenneth Lester ordered a significant amount of information released to the public, including:
- Zimmerman’s statements to police in the aftermath of the shooting.
- The results of a voice “stress test” conducted on Zimmerman.
- The full statement by “witness 9,” a woman who called police after the shooting and alluded to Zimmerman and his family “hating black people” and to issues of character that she said included something Zimmerman “did to her.” The woman, who sounded shaken and did not want the officer who took her statement to use her name, will not be named in the release.
- The crime scene photos from the night of February 26th when Zimmerman shot Trayvon Martin to death, except for those photos showing Martin’s body.
- All emails to Sanford police related to the case, which are deemed to be public record under Florida’s liberal “sunshine laws.”

And Trayvon's father, Tracy Martin, has filmed a Father's Day Message about getting "Stand Your Ground" laws repealed in other states:

Voter Turnout Heavy in Wisconsin

I've been collecting Tweets all day on Snark Amendment and will be updating this until the polls close.
Badgers Vote and the World is Watching

This election is a huge deal and symbolic of the entire political system. I hope Wisconsin feels the weight of history and votes to throw Walker out. That is the only message that will be loud and clear. If he wins again, the Republicans will take it as a mandate even if he immediately gets indicted. He needs to be out, period. But at least this recall and his legal woes will keep him from being Romney's running mate. He's pretty much tainted himself forever. I don't know why Republicans would ever want this bozo for a governor except that they basically hate themselves.

The Solidarity Sing-Along on the Capitol Square in Madison this morning:


Milwaukee Journal-Sentinal: Who Benefits from High Turnout?

Who benefits from higher turnout? There’s no pat answer to that question. There were 2,171,331 votes cast in the 2010 election. If turnout is, say, 200,000 votes higher than that, that could reflect a Republican turnout surge, a Democratic turnout surge, or both. Turnout is extremely unlikely Tuesday to match the 2008 presidential race, when almost 3 million votes were cast in Wisconsin.
But if turnout is in the very bullish range predicted by state election officials – 2.6 to 2.8 million – that could be good news for Democrats. That’s because the Democratic coalition includes voting groups – minorities, lower-income voters, young voters – that typically turn out at lower rates. If turnout really does top 2.5 million, that probably indicates a robust turnout by more casual Democratic voters.

Wisconsin State Journal: Turnout Heavy

Voters and public officials reported long lines at many Wisconsin polling places Tuesday — with Dane County Clerk Karen Peters calling the local turnout "just wild."
"It ranges from 28 to 42 percent already; it is a huge turnout. We could hit 80 to 88 percent," Peters said midday of Dane County's turnout. She collected status reports from local clerks....

..."Everything leading up to this election, it completely felt like a presidential (election)," said Maribeth Witzel-Behl, the city clerk in Madison, where turnout was strong. She was speaking of the workload, number of officials needed for the polls and the number of absentee ballots her office received prior to the election.
There were lines outside of many polling places this morning — full of voters who anticipated longer waits as the day progressed.

Barrett took that as a good sign for him. "Obviously the lines are very, very long, which we take as a very encouraging sign. People are engaged in this," he said. "We've noted over the last 96 hours is around the state the energy has just been building and building and building."

Walker, who cast his ballot Tuesday at an elementary school in Wauwatosa, said Election Day almost came as a relief.
"I think most people are just happy to have the election over," he said. "I think most voters of the state want to have all the attack ads off. They want to have their TVs back. They want to have their lives back."

Think Progress: Robocalls Telling People Not to Vote

Tom Barrett, the mayor of Milwaukee and the Democratic nominee to unseat Governor Scott Walker, told MSNBC host Ed Schultz last night that his campaign began receiving complaints yesterday that voters had been contacted with the misinformation. This morning, Salon reported on the robocalls too, and included comments from Carol Gibbons, a Wisconsin resident who got the call herself. And a local CBS affiliate is even reporting that the caller sounds eerily similar to Tom Barrett, suggesting the group behind the call may have hired a Barrett impersonator.

Obama Backs Barrett on Twitter

President Obama tonight tweeted support for Tom Barrett in the Wisconsin Recall Election:

It's Election Day in Wisconsin tomorrow, and I'm standing by Tom Barrett. He'd make an outstanding governor. -bo

— Barack Obama (@BarackObama) June 4, 2012

Barrett told voters tonight that the race is close.WIFR.com reporting:

PORTAGE, Wis. (AP) -- Democratic Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett says he thinks the recall race against Republican Gov. Scott Walker is now a dead heat heading into Tuesday's election. An exuberant Barrett spoke to about 100 of his volunteers in Portage in one of several stops he made on the final day of campaigning before the recall vote.

Also this breaking News tonight from Wisconsin Dems:

June 04, 2012 BREAKING: Scott Walker's Closest Aide Revealed in Court as Source of Damaging Leak; Flips on Embattled Governor
Scott Walker's closest political aide has just been named in Milwaukee County Circuit Court Monday as the source of damaging revelations that undermine Walker's claim that he has cooperated with the John Doe criminal corruption probe into his current and former administrations.
Tim Russell, who was hired or promoted by Scott Walker even after he was fired for stealing from a state agency, was said in court Monday to have given Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Dan Bice information that showed that, contrary to Walker's claims, Walker was stonewalling investigators all along.
The shocking revelation that Scott Walker's closest aide sought to damage Walker on the eve of Tuesday's historic recall election indicated that Russell was cooperating with a prosecution against Walker himself.

Vanderbilt Poll - Tennessee Could Be a Toss-Up

 Be still my heart ~ a new Vanderbilt University Poll has Obama tied with Romney in a virtual dead heat within my home state of Tennessee!

Nashville Tennessean: Vandy Poll says Gap Closing

“Tennessee is clearly a red state,” said John Geer, a professor of political science at Vanderbilt. “But these data show that the public is much more moderate than our state legislature.”

The poll of 1,002 Tennessee residents who are 18 and older found 42 percent would vote for Romney and 41 percent for Obama if the election were held now. The survey, conducted May 2-9 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International for Vanderbilt, had a margin of error of 4 percentage points.
. . .
Bill Freeman, a top fundraiser for Obama in Tennessee, said the overall poll result reflects a “tightening” the president’s campaign had already noticed.
“We’ve been tracking it for some time,” Freeman said Thursday. “We’ve watched it go from a solid-Republican (state) to a leaning-Republican to, we believe, a toss-up state now. We think we’re just a point or two behind and that winning Tennessee is in our grasp.
“And we’re especially excited about what that’ll mean to the down-ticket races across the state.”

And here's a part I love - proof that folks are fed up with our stupid Legislature:

Some of the General Assembly’s forays into issues such as “gateway sexual activity,” debating evolution in classrooms and permitting the carrying of guns into business parking lots have given Tennessee “a black eye nationally,” Geer said.

Just 22 percent of the people surveyed said it was more important to protect the rights of handgun owners to carry their weapons into any commercial establishment than it was to protect the rights of business owners to set their own rules. More than 7 in 10 said the opposite.

“The public is not wild about this stuff,” said Geer, co-director of the poll, which was sponsored by Vanderbilt’s Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions. “When you aggregate opinion in the state, it’s more moderate than the aggregate behavior of state legislators. On certain issues, like guns in parking lots, they were way out of step.”

This is factual evidence for what my gut feeling tells me all the time - Tennesseans are not as conservative as our reputation as a Red State seems to imply. There are plenty of Democrats and Independents here, and our state usually runs about 50/50 in major elections. But there's still so much work to be done to drag us back into blue or even toss-up status. It broke my heart in the last election that the local Democratic Party spent more time campaigning in North Carolina than here, although that was certainly worthwhile for Obama. And while NC has had their problems with the recent Gay Marriage Amendment Debacle, the educated large urban areas of NC will still go for Obama, you can bet on that. And if NC can be a swing state, so can TN! So let's take this Vanderbilt poll as a glimmer of hope that our Democratic votes may not be wasted or cancelled out this time around, at least in the down-ticket races.