“The Big Chill,” NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center post read. “Blistering cold air from the Arctic plunged southward this winter, breaking US temperature records.”
“A persistent pattern of winds spins high above the Arctic in winter. The winds, known as the polar vortex, typically blow in a fairly tight circular formation. But in late December 2013 and early January 2014, the winds loosened and frigid Arctic air spilled farther south than usual, deep into the continental United States.”
On the heels of a winter storm named "Hercules" that brought blizzard conditions to the Midwest and New England and caused 16 deaths, we now have a phenomenon called the "Winter Vortex" that could be even more dangerous. Over the next 24 hours the Arctic blast is going to make temperatures plummet to below double digits below zero over the northern states and into the south. Also blizzards are happening again, and several states are under states of emergency just due to ice and cold. Is this extreme weather connected to global warming? Probably, yes. Is there anything we can do about it except bundle up and shake a fist at the sky? No.
Meteorologists attribute the “polar vortex” to freezing air from the North Pole being pushed down to as far as the Gulf Coast of the U.S., the Associated Press reports. In Atlanta, temperatures will be in the mid-20s by Tuesday while a wintry mix of rain and snow are expected in parts of Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia, northern Arkansas, southern Ohio and southwestern Pennsylvania late into Sunday. The cold front will likely freeze large bodies of water, like the Great Lakes, meaning freezing temperatures could last through winter.
While still digging out from current snowfall, another winter storm will drop more snow and ice onto the the central Plains to the Great Lakes states this weekend. The biggest hit areas will include St. Louis, Indianapolis, Detroit, Cleveland and Buffalo.
We are deeply saddened by the loss of Tim Samaras, his son Paul and their colleague Carl Young who died Friday, May 31st doing what they love: chasing storms.
Chasing storms had been a part of Tim Samaras's life for over 25 years. Ten years ago, Tim developed his own tornado probes to record meteorological data inside of tornadoes.
Inspired by a two-month adventure chasing storms across the Great Plains, Carl Young left a career in Hollywood to study tornado dynamics and ultimately earn a masters degree in atmospheric science from the University of Nevada, Reno.
While attending a meteorological conference, Carl met Tim, who encouraged him to collect meteorological data from inside tornadoes as the principal focus of his thesis research.
Every spring since 2003, the two headed out together and tracked down over 125 tornadoes. Their mission was to help understand why tornadoes form in order to increase warning times in Tornado Alley.
Tim and Carl's work was the subject of Discovery Channel's Storm Chasers series, which premiered on October 17, 2007 and ran for five seasons.
Our thoughts and prayers go out to Tim and Carl's friends and families.
Tim Samaras, one of the world's best-known storm chasers, died in Friday's El Reno, Oklahoma, tornado, along with his 24-year-old son, a gifted filmmaker, according to a statement from Samaras's brother.
"They all unfortunately passed away but doing what they LOVED," Jim Samaras, Tim's brother, wrote on Facebook, saying that storm chaser Carl Young was also killed. "I look at it that he is in the 'big tornado in the sky.'"
. . . Samaras's interest in tornadoes began when he was six, after he saw the movie The Wizard of Oz. For the past 20 years, he spent May and June traveling through Tornado Alley, an area that has the highest frequency of tornadoes in the world. He worked with his son Paul, who was known for capturing cyclones on camera.
Friday's tornado took a sudden turn that surprised many observers, CNN meteorologist Chad Myers said.
"It was a wobbler. And it was big. ... I think the left-hand turn made a big difference on how this thing was chased as well and why people were killed and why people were injured in their vehicles," he said. "A vehicle is not a place to be in any tornado, especially a big one like that, and those men doing their job, those field scientists out there doing their jobs, were killed in the process."
Tim Samaras founded TWISTEX, the Tactical Weather Instrumented Sampling in Tornadoes Experiment, to help learn more about tornadoes and increase lead time for warnings, according to the official website.
. . . Doug Kiesling, a videographer who chases storms and calls himself "The Weather Paparazzi," said the three men were more than storm chasers. "They're researchers," he said.
"This thing is really shaking up everyone in the chasing community," he said. "We knew this day would happen someday, but nobody would imagine that it would happen to Tim. Tim was one of the safest people to go out there. ... He's had close calls, but he's always had an escape route."
NOAA and the National Hurricane Center have been doing some soul-searching about how they handled Hurricane Sandy, the superstorm that devastated the Eastern Seabord. Now they realize it was a big mistake to change the storm's status just as it came ashore, telling local weather forecasters it was no longer a hurricane even though obviously there were hurricane force winds happening over a wide area. It's actually cringe-worthy that some guys far inland, no matter how well-meaning, thought they could just brush off a mega-storm onto local officials while trees were crashing, homes were being destroyed, electricity was failing, and the storm surge was flooding huge areas of New York and New Jersey. It really makes no sense and I'm glad they are fixing the problem.
Following the criticism of the National Hurricane Center's handling of Hurricane Sandy and the non-issuance of hurricane warnings north of North Carolina, it has been decided that the NHC will now have more flexibility in their policy regarding the issuance of advisories.
Beginning in 2013, the NHC will have the flexibility to issue multiple advisories on post-tropical cyclones for landfalling systems or close bypassers.
According to the NHC, this required a revision of the Hurricane Warning definition, which will now be as follows:
An announcement that sustained winds of 74 mph or higher are expected somewhere within the specified area in association with a tropical, sub-tropical, or post-tropical cyclone. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the warning is issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds. The warning can remain in effect when dangerously high water or a combination of dangerously high water and waves continue, even though winds may be less than hurricane force.
"The main issue is: we want people to get ready for hurricane conditions, and that's why we are changing the definition of hurricane warning to be a little more inclusive of other things than just a hurricane," Chris Landsea, Science and Operations Officer at the National Hurricane Center, told AccuWeather.com.
Additionally, the NHC eventually plans to begin differentiating between wind hazards and storm surge hazards.
"Sandy was not ideal, and the way we handled it was not right. But we're fixing it," Landsea told AccuWeather.com.
"We realize this was not satisfactory and we want to make it better for next year."
The President visited Sandy-stricken Staten Island today in NYC. Obama would have been there sooner, except Mayor Bloomberg told him to stay away so his security wouldn't be a distraction right after the hurricane.
And during difficult times like this, we’re reminded that we’re bound together and we have to look out for each other. And a lot of the things that seem important, the petty differences melt away, and we focus on what binds us together and that we as Americans are going to stand with each other in their hour of need.
Now, more specifically, we are now still in the process of recovery. As you can see, as you travel around parts of Staten Island, as we flew over parts of — other parts of the city and the region that had been impacted, there is still a lot of cleanup to do. People still need emergency help. They still need heat. They still need power. They still need food. They still need shelter. Kids are still trying to figure out where they’re going to school. So there’s a lot of short-term, immediate stuff that has to be dealt with. And we are going to make sure that we stay here as long as people need that immediate help. That’s FEMA’s primary task. And we’ll be coordinating closely with state and local governments to make sure folks are getting the short-term help.
But what we’ve also already heard is that there’s going to be some long-term rebuilding that’s required. You look at this block and you know that this is a community that is deeply rooted. Most of the folks that I met here have been here 20, 30, 50 years. They don’t want to see their community uprooted, but there’s got to be a plan for rebuilding, and that plan is going to have to be coordinated, and they’re going to need resources.
So what I’ve committed to doing is to work with the outstanding congressional delegation led by your Senators Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand, also working with Governor Christie and the Jersey delegation to try to come up with a game plan for how we’re going to be able to resource the rebuilding process.
And I’m confident, as Governor Cuomo said, that we’re going to be able to do it. But it’s going to require everybody focused on getting the job done. We’re going to have to put some of the turf battles aside. We’re going to have to make sure that everybody is focused on doing the job as opposed to worrying about who is getting the credit or who is getting the contracts or all that stuff that sometimes goes into the rebuilding process.
On the federal level, because this is going to be such a big job, I wanted to assign one particular person who would be in charge from our perspective, who would be our point person — because FEMA basically runs the recovery process, it doesn’t focus on the rebuilding. For that, we’ve got to have all government agencies involved. Janet Napolitano has done a great job with respect to DHS, but we thought it would be good to have a New Yorker who is going to be the point person. And so our outstanding HUD Secretary, Shaun Donovan, who used to be the head of the New York Housing Authority — so he knows a little bit about New York and building — is going to be our point person. And he’s going to be working with the mayor, the governor, the borough presidents, the county officials to make sure that we come up with a strong, effective plan. And then, I’ll be working with the members of Congress to do everything we can to get the resources needed to rebuild. And I have every confidence that Shaun is going to be doing a great job, and so people should feel some confidence about that.
Let me just close by saying this: I had the opportunity to give some hugs and communicate thoughts and prayers to the Moore family. They lost two young sons during the course of this tragedy. And obviously, I expressed to them — as a father, as a parent — my heartbreak over what they went through. And they’re still obviously a little shell-shocked.
On Thursday the bodies of two young boys who were swept away from their mother’s grasp during the storm surge were recovered, NBC News reported. A missing husband and wife were also found dead Thursday, NBCNewYork.com reported.
That brought the toll on the island to 19, NBCNewYork.com reported. On Thursday, Mayor Michael Bloomberg said Superstorm Sandy is responsible for the deaths of at least 37 New Yorkers.
. . . Staten Island, which took a direct blow from Sandy, is a scene of immeasurable misery and utter devastation, with homes obliterated, others off their foundations in addition to widespread flooding.
"The city of New York right now is talking about getting water out of the Battery Tunnel and preparing for a marathon," U.S. Rep. Rep. Michael Grimm said. "We're pulling bodies out of the water. You see the disconnect here?"
NYPD officials have denied to NBC News that Staten Island’s working class neighborhoods have come after wealthier areas.
“We are heading into the area where there is major destruction now,” Red Cross spokeswoman Anne Marie Borrego told NBC News late Thursday.
“We will get our beaches restored,” New York senior said outside a water treatment facility in Long Beach that has been inoperable since Monday, leaving residents without running water.
Schumer toured parts of Long Beach on foot Wednesday afternoon and surveyed Fire Island by helicopter. ”Much of the beach is gone,” he said. “And the beach is what Fire Island is.”
He said the beaches could be restored with the help of the Army Corp of Engineers, which could use sand from dredging projects to rebuild them. In Long Beach, he said FEMA would pay for the rebuilding of the boardwalk that had been twisted and torn up by the storm.
“The far bigger problem is global warming which is causing these storms to threaten our coastline,” Schumer said.
Mayor Bloomberg today insisted the New York City Marathon should go on as scheduled, even as huge swaths of Gotham remain in ruins and with no electricity.
The famed five -borough race is set for Sunday, starting at the Verrazano-Narrows Bridge and ending in Central Park.
The mayor is banking on the restoration of electricity on several blocks of Manhattan, below 34th Street, thus relieving some police burden there.
“The marathon is not going to redirect any focus. Keep in mind by Sunday we’ll have electricity back downtown,” Bloomberg said. “That will free up an enormous number of police. Also, a lot of the transportation needs that we have during the week aren’t there on the weekends.”
Former Comptroller Bill Thompson said he appreciates the importance the marathon -- but believes there are too many other issues to address in New York right now.
"The New York City Marathon is one of our country’s quintessential events, but in the wake of the natural disaster that has struck our city and its residents we need to focus on more important priorities," Thompson wrote on his Facebook page tonight.
"New Yorkers are suffering. Lives have been lost, homes destroyed, seniors stranded in public housing with no electricity and entire neighborhoods are suffering with scant access to fresh water, food and electricity. While I understand the importance of this event and the fact that it draws people from all over the world to watch and participate, I believe this year’s race needs to be postponed to a later date."
Hindsight is always 20-20 especially when dealing with predicting the weather. But with Sandy, the forecasters got it all too right, even though many on Twitter and elsewhere made fun of the moniker "Frankenstorm," and CNN News supposedly banned the use of the name. Yet the hurricane really developed into the worst of the worst-case-scenarios and everyone's nightmare storm.
Luckily local officials listened to the scientists at NOAA and science saved lives.
Sandy isn't a normal storm - it's a Mega Monster Storm. Not only is it destroying piers, boats, beaches, and homes along the complete Eastern Shore of the United States, but it's also going to bring in a blizzard of snow - 1-2 FEET - in the Appalachian Mountain region. And then it's going to move into Canada and God only knows what sort of weather they will receive.
I'm saying a prayer for everyone in the path of this storm. Stay safe, and stay home.
Airlines have canceled more than 12,000 flights along the East Coast due to Hurricane #Sandy: on.wsj.com/SoHoau
— Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) October 29, 2012
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
200 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
...SANDY MOVING MORE QUICKLY TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
...LANDFALL EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.3N 73.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OFbTHE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS.
THIS INCLUDES THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT... THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
OTHER COASTAL AND INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 38.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST. SANDY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 28 MPH...
44 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST BY EARLY EVENING.
REPORTS FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL OR WINTERTIME LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS TRANSITION
WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. SANDY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING WELL INLAND.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM... MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 485 MILES...780 KM. SUSTAINED WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE OCCURRING FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...AND INCLUDING ALL OF THE CHESAPEAKE AND DELAWARE BAYS. A WEATHERFLOW INSTRUMENT RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 54 MPH...87 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 63 MPH...102 KM/H...ON LONG ISLAND AT EATONS NECK NEW YORK.
ALSO...A UNIVERSITY OF CONNECTICUT BUOY LOCATED IN WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 38 MPH...61 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 54 MPH...87 KM/H...AT A HEIGHT OF 10 FEET ABOVE THE WATER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...GALE/TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER OTHER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND...BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT
ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS
BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT
CAPE COD TO THE MA/NH BORDER INCLUDING CAPE COD BAY...2 TO 4 FT
MA/NH BORDER TO THE U.S./CANADA BORDER...1 TO 3 FT
SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION... ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY. FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.
SNOWFALL..SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER...WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MARYLAND.
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
NEXT ADVISORY
------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AT 300 AND 400 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
It's incredible that a storm can come along so late in the hurricane season and be described as either "The Perfect Storm" (as in the Storm of the Century in 1993) or even worse - "The Frankenstorm" because it is supposed to hit close to Halloween. There's also another "spin" on Sandy (pardon the pun) that it will become a "Hybrid Freak" thanks to an arctic cold front moving across the country that will merge into the tropical low.
All of it spells trouble for New Jersey north into New England next week.
STATUS: Sandy remains a Category 2 hurricane, as of 10:30 p.m. Thursday STRENGTH: Maximum sustained winds of 100 mph; 965 mb pressure LOCATION: Center of the storm is between Cat Island and Eleuthera Island in the Bahamas, 105 miles east of Nassau in the Bahamas, as of 9 p.m. Thursday SPEED & DIRECTION: Moving north-northwest at 17 mph Source: National Hurricane Center
. . . the forecast for the storm is highly complex, and has little to no historical comparison, according to David Robinson, the state climatologist at Rutgers University.
“It borders on rare to unprecedented on its potential,” he said. “This is a threat that should be taken seriously. I’m not suggesting people should run right now to the grocery store for your bread and milk, but it needs to be watched closely.”
A myriad of scenarios for how the situation will unfold exists, according to forecast guidance. Were Sandy to track inland just south of or on the New Jersey coast, major coastal flooding, hurricane force winds and torrential rain are all distinct possibilities. A track further to the north, in New England, and the Garden State may be spared some of the more severe impacts. Even the potential for Sandy to move out to sea (while the least likely) can’t be completely discounted at this point.
Because the ceiling of the storm’s impact is so high, forecasters and state officials are urging residents to monitor it closely. The threat of major coastal flooding, inland flooding and wind damage is very much in the realm of possibilities for New Jersey – a threat that should not be taken lightly, regardless of the outcome.
I thought I had seen every kind of weather where I live in Tennessee, from drought to blizzards to tornadoes to remnants of hurricanes. Did I mention hailstorms, straight-line-wind and downbursts? Yes, I thought I had experienced everything Mother Nature had to throw at us, even an occasional flood, earthquake, landslide, and sinkhole.
So imagine my surprise when my local forecast surprised me.
Today it says: Blowing Dust. And you can see it on the radar (screencap below) as sort of muddy-looking streaks blowing up from Alabama - surreal. Outdoors, it only appears as a haze over everything. Usually a windy day in October would be nice and clear with blue skies and long-distance visibility. Not today.
My mother grew up in Kansas and told us what it was like during the Dust Bowl of the 30s, when they had to wear rags over their faces to walk to school, and blocked cracks around the windows to try and keep the dirt out. This is nothing compared to that, of course. And when I was a kid, Chattanooga had such bad air pollution that it was hazy for months at a time, so we've come a long way.
But the fact that the drought in Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska is so horrible that eroded dirt is blowing across the country again is disturbing. It wasn't supposed to happen again, and the fact it coincides with the Great Recession is really something to think about in terms of history repeating itself.
Kathy Robertson of the Air Pollution Control Bureau said, "We started getting calls about 10 o'clock this morning. By 12 or 12:30 when people were getting out for lunch, our phones were ringing off the hooks."
She said at first it was thought to be a woods fire, "but we didn't smell smoke and the haze was a different color."
Ms. Robertson said she eventually found reports of the dust storm that hit the Midwest and knew that it had arrived here.
It started as a beautiful clear day, but around mid-morning it began to get difficult to see Lookout Mountain or Missionary Ridge from downtown.
Ms. Robertson said it was the same situation in places like Fort Payne, Dalton and Cleveland. "I got a call saying it was even worse in Knoxville."
However, she said local air quality readings remained good. She said the dust should not be a health factor except for those who are sensitive to dust.
Last night Hurricane Isaac came ashore in New Orleans, then enigmatically bumped right back out to sea where it went stationary for many hours. That means that it has rained, and rained, and rained all night over one area with band after band of rain and wind. So the levees are being overtopped, and some places that didn't flood in Katrina are underwater now. This could be a total disaster, and my heart just breaks for the people of New Orleans!!! This is only a Category One storm, but the rain amounts are astronomical - 20 inches or more.
Almost exactly 7 years to the day that deadly Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans, Louisiana, the storm known as Isaac reached Category 1 Hurricane status today in nearly the same location. Heavy surf is a problem all along the Gulf Coast from NOLA to the panhandle of Florida.
Isaac is expected to be weaker than Katrina, which came ashore as a Category 3 hurricane with 125-mph winds. But New Orleans could start to feel tropical storm force winds by midnight Monday, and while Isaac may veer off its currently projected course, "It seems to be settling into a pathway and a speed that is becoming predictable," Landrieu said.
"It is quite ironic that we have a hurricane threatening us on the seventh anniversary of Katrina," he said. But he added that as of Monday afternoon, "There is nothing this storm will bring us that we are not capable of handling."
Most of Katrina's nearly 1,800 deaths occurred when the protective levees around New Orleans failed, flooding the city. But Landrieu said the levees have had $10 billion in improvements since 2005, and the city's pump stations have backup generators ready in case of electrical outages.
I have to laugh at Governor Bobby Jindal - even though Obama is declaring emergency funds available before the storm hits, he wants the Federal Government to pay more for their preparatiions. LOL ~ so much for hating "big gummint hand-outs" which Jindal has turned down, but only when the money is for the unemployed or for women's health care.
I kind of love it that all the Southern governors had to rush back to their states from the RNC in Tampa. I'm not going to echo Pat Roberson by saying God is doing this to them, but I do believe in the wheel of fortune, and what goes around comes around. Karma is a bitch. Tomorrow, everyone will be thinking of Katrina and the failure of George Bush as Mitt Romney makes his acceptance speech.
Isaac is a scary storm, but there is onee silver lining because the drought-cursed Midwest may get some much-needed rain in the coming days. I really hope that happens! And meanwhile, I hope folks in NOLA head for higher ground.
Tropical Storm Isaac has caused the Republicans to postpone the opening night of their Convention in Tampa Florida. I would make a Pat Robertson joke here, but it's too obvious. It is a pity that the Republicans are suddenly dependent on information from NOAA and the Hurricane Hunters, which are funded by our tax money and use science to do their jobs - *horrors*. I'm sure they'd rather cut out all funding - at least Mitt has a clear conscience, since hasn't paid any taxes towards it. I'm sure Gov. Scott will be calling FEMA as soon as the storm passes over like all Red State Governors.
Jokes abound - I'll be posting more on Snark Amendment this weekend, so check there tomorrow. Here is my previous post on Isaac: Hurricane Isaac May Blow-Out Tampa
Before postponing #RNC2012 did the GOP ask Todd Akin if hurricane Isaac is legitimate? @pourmecoffee
‘‘Our first priority is ensuring the safety of delegates, alternates, guests, members of the media attending the Republican National Convention, and citizens of the Tampa Bay area,’’ party chairman Reince Priebus said in an emailed announcement that followed private conversations involving presidential candidate Mitt Romney’s campaign, security officials and others.
Priebus added that forecasters have predicted that convention-goers ‘‘may encounter severe transportation difficulties due to sustained wind and rain’’ on Monday, the day the convention had been scheduled to open.
The announcement said that while the convention would officially be gaveled into session on Monday as scheduled, the day’s events would be cancelled until Tuesday.
That meant Romney’s formal nomination would be postponed by a day, from Monday to Tuesday, but the balance of the four days of political pageantry and speechmaking would go on as scheduled.
Florida Governor Rick Scott, a Republican, declared a state of emergency and said he was cancelling his own appearance at the convention in order to focus on the safety of all 19 million people in the state.
Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn, a Democrat, had sought to calm jitters about the weather, saying the storm might bring heavy rain to Tampa on the first of the four-day convention but that this would be followed by sunny skies.
"There may be wet shoes, but every day after Monday ought to be fine," Buckhorn told Fox News before the Republicans announced the one-day delay to the start of the convention proper.
Vice President Joe Biden has canceled a trip to Tampa and other Florida cities because of the approaching storm, Obama's Democratic campaign said.
Isaac is not the only storm out in the Atlantic, but it's the only one threatening Florida at the present time. The remnants of Tropical Storm Joyce are off to the east (yellow circle) with only 10% chance of reforming into something dangerous. The next storm just coming off the coast of Africa looks bigger, with a 50% chance.
Tropical Storm Isaac is swirling in the Atlantic to the east of Cuba, but eventually it will move towards Florida by the weekend. Will it go up the east side or the west side? If it moves over central or western Florida it will have a major impact the Republican Convention in Tampa, which starts Monday. If evacuation orders are in play, the Convention may be postponed or cancelled.
I guess people need to pack fancy raincoats, because Mitt won't accept just any rain gear. While attending a Nascar race last spring, Mitt mocked people wearing plastic ponchos saying "I like those fancy raincoats you bought. Really sprung for the big bucks.”
Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn said today that cancelling the convention is absolutely an option.
"Absolutely we are prepared to call it off," Buckhorn told CNN's Early Start. "Human safety and human life trumps politics. I think the RNC recognizes that. The organizers, certainly Gov. Romney, recognizes that."
"Whatever we do will be based on getting people out of harm's way," Buckhorn continued. "Politics will take second place and all of us recognize that."
As of this morning, the worst possible scenario is that Hurricane Isaac stays on the western track, skating over the Caribbean Sea south of Haiti, crossing the primarily flat landscape of western Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico then curving east and hitting Tampa dead-on.
"Tampa is just as vulnerable as New Orleans was in the sense that the water will funnel into the bay area and from the storm surge which will flood completely the whole entire city of Tampa," Golembo said referring to Hurricane Katrina that devastated New Orleans in 2005.
Who can forget the profound desperation in Tom Joad’s heart as he and his family leave Oklahoma’s drought-stricken farms in John Steinbeck’s classic "The Grapes of Wrath?"
That dusty image — of flattened fields and beaten-down farmers — can be seen today in most counties in my state and others due to the persistent, unprecedented drought now suffocating America’s breadbasket.
The facts are stark.
In Illinois, we’ve experienced the sixth-driest growing season on record. Of 102 counties, 100 are disaster areas. The latest corn conditions show 74 percent of this year’s crop is “poor” or “very poor”, so the cost of corn products ranging from ethanol to tortillas will soar. Barren grazing pastures are forcing livestock farmers to purchase hay at inflated prices. The drought also affects fisheries, wildlife, water levels in navigable waterways and the entire food chain.
"It has not been properly recognised yet that we are dealing with a food system here. There is a whole chain that is also going to be affected by climate change," Professor Dr John Porter of the University of Copenhagen said.
"It is more than just the fact that there are droughts in the United States that will reduce yields," he said. Like the other experts, he said was giving personal opinions, not those of the U.N. panel.
After harvest, floods could wash away roads or bridges, for instance, between fields and factories processing the crop. Or warehouses storing food could be damaged by more powerful storms. Such factors were likely to hit poor nations hardest.
"There are reasons to expect more frequent (price) spikes, given that it will be more common to see conditions that are considered extreme," said David Lobell, an assistant professor at Stanford University in California.
Not only are more wildfires flaring up in the West this year than last, but the nation's fires have gotten bigger, said Jennifer Smith, of the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise, Idaho.
As of Thursday, more than 43,000 wildfires had been reported in the U.S. this season, burning a total of nearly 6.4 million acres, or 10,000 square miles, the center said.
The 10-year average for the period is 52,535 fires, but covering only 5 million acres, Smith said.
Using instruments on earlier satellites, scientists could see that the area covered by summer sea ice in the Arctic has been dwindling rapidly. But the new measurements indicate that this ice has been thinning dramatically at the same time. For example, in regions north of Canada and Greenland, where ice thickness regularly stayed at around five to six metres in summer a decade ago, levels have dropped to one to three metres.
"Preliminary analysis of our data indicates that the rate of loss of sea ice volume in summer in the Arctic may be far larger than we had previously suspected," said Dr Seymour Laxon, of the Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling at University College London (UCL), where CryoSat-2 data is being analysed.
"Very soon we may experience the iconic moment when, one day in the summer, we look at satellite images and see no sea ice coverage in the Arctic, just open water."
The consequences of losing the Arctic's ice coverage, even for only part of the year, could be profound. Without the cap's white brilliance to reflect sunlight back into space, the region will heat up even more than at present. As a result, ocean temperatures will rise and methane deposits on the ocean floor could melt, evaporate and bubble into the atmosphere. Scientists have recently reported evidence that methane plumes are now appearing in many areas. Methane is a particularly powerful greenhouse gas and rising levels of it in the atmosphere are only likely to accelerate global warming.
"The Line Storm," by John Steuart Curry, 1897-1946
Lately there have been several lines of devastating storms moving through the Ohio Valley, and meteorologists have been referring to them as a "derecho." I've lived in the U.S. all my life and never heard that term, even though we routinely get straight-line winds and severe weather here in the Southeast. They never mentioned it last year on the day of the April tornadoes, although that line of storms lasted for hundreds of miles, which makes me think that tornadoes trump derechos. Officially, the terrible line of storms that passed over the Northeast last week were not part of a derecho:
Joey Picca , a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, said in a telephone interview with the Los Angeles Times from his office in Upton N.Y. on Long Island. “What we saw yesterday wasn’t a derecho in the traditional sense because it wasn’t widespread enough. Although we did see a large line of thunderstorms, it was lacking the true intensity you would like to see in a derecho.”
A derecho is defined as an event that has wind gusts of at least 58 mph and leaves a swath of damage for a minimum of 240 miles, according to the U.S. Storm Prediction Center.
So the phenomenon is actually rare, but with global warming raising the mercury it it could certainly happen again, so let's get educated by going directly to NOAA for the definition:
Definition of a derecho A derecho (pronounced similar to "deh-REY-cho" in English, or pronounced phonetically as "") is a widespread, long-lived wind storm that is associated with a band of rapidly moving showers or thunderstorms. Although a derecho can produce destruction similar to that of tornadoes, the damage typically is directed in one direction along a relatively straight swath. As a result, the term "straight-line wind damage" sometimes is used to describe derecho damage. By definition, if the wind damage swath extends more than 240 miles (about 400 kilometers) and includes wind gusts of at least 58 mph (93 km/h) or greater along most of its length, then the event may be classified as a derecho.
Origin of the term "derecho" The word "derecho" was coined by Dr. Gustavus Hinrichs, a physics professor at the University of Iowa, in a paper published in the American Meteorological Journal in 1888. A defining excerpt from the paper can be seen in this figure showing a derecho crossing Iowa on July 31, 1877. Hinrichs chose this terminology for thunderstorm-induced straight-line winds as an analog to the word tornado.
"Derecho" is a Spanish word that can be defined as "direct" or "straight ahead." (Click here to hear a pronounciation of the word "derecho"). In contrast, the word "tornado" is thought by some, including Hinrichs, to have been derived from the Spanish word "tornar," which means "to turn." Because derecho is a Spanish word, the plural term is "derechos;" there is no letter "e" after the letter "o."
A web page about Gustavus Hinrichs has been created by Ray Wolf of the Davenport, Iowa National Weather Service Forecast Office. The page provides information on Hinrichs' background, and on his development of the term "derecho" in the late 1800s. Wolf's page also briefly discusses how the term "derecho" has come into more common use in recent years.
We've been having a rather bad drought in the Chattanooga area, so everyone was happy when storms were forcast for Thursday. But it turned into a freaky weather situation that no one expected.
First we had severe storms with bad lightning and very little rain. Hail was reported but on my sidewalk it turned into giant raindrops that only lasted a few minutes.
An hour later, Chattanooga got squeezed between two more severe storms, and the outflow created a dry "Gust Front" wind that wreaked havoc over a wide area. I would have called it a "gustnado" because it was twisting trees first to the left then the right. This video captures it well - I'm glad no trees fell on this guy!
I have never seen waves like this on Lake Chickamauga, and for 8 years I lived right on the Tennessee River.
In our neighborhood a power pole snapped in half and took down the lines. It was 24 hours later that we got our power restored, after my husband went directly to the power board building and reported it for the third time. Thank God because this afternoon the temperature inside our house at 5 p.m. was 90 degrees.
But I realize that what we have suffered for 24 hours is nothing compared to those up in Virginia and the Washington DC area this past week. I hope everyone gets the power back on soon.
Between the tornadoes over the past year, and this Gust Front, I can't even imagine what could be next. I don't want to know!
Weather service officials say studies after deadly tornadoes in Joplin, Mo., and Tuscaloosa, Ala., last year found that most people didn't heed the initial warnings about the oncoming storms.
They also say people in tornado-prone areas have become desensitized by frequent false alarms and don't always pay attention to the first warnings.
And so, offices in Missouri and Kansas will start sending out "impact-based" warnings during severe weather that describe how much damage a storm could cause.
Among the messages in the new warnings:
"COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF ENTIRE NEIGHBORHOODS IS LIKELY"
and
"MASS DEVASTATION IS HIGHLY LIKELY MAKING THE
AREA UNRECOGNIZABLE TO SURVIVORS."
Maybe they should think of adding those warnings to other states, such as Texas, which was hard hit the other day by massive tornadoes that caused devastation. And considering the year we've had so far, how about Tennessee and Kentucky, too?
") is a widespread, long-lived wind storm that is associated with a band of rapidly moving showers or thunderstorms. Although a derecho can produce destruction similar to that of tornadoes, the damage typically is directed in one direction along a relatively straight swath. As a result, the term "straight-line wind damage" sometimes is used to describe derecho damage. By definition, if the wind damage swath extends more than 240 miles (about 400 kilometers) and includes wind gusts of at least 58 mph (93 km/h) or greater along most of its length, then the event may be classified as a derecho. 