Volcanoes in the News: From Bardarbunga to Ontakesan

Ontakesan Volcano

There are so many active volcanoes around the world right now it is hard to keep track of them.

Yesterday, Mt. Ontakesan in Japan blew up without warning, and it has been a tragedy for hikers and climbers who were on the mountain. Searchers have rushed to the area to try and rescue people in the area, now covered in volcanic ash. But the volcano remains dangerous and is still erupting. I hope they find some survivors, but it's a grim situation.

Ontakesan Live Webcam

Webcam footage of pyroclastic flows from Mt #Ontake eruption. (In Japanese). http://t.co/I2BwwpiW2V pic.twitter.com/csCVrrqUhY
— Epic Cosmos (@EpicCosmos) September 27, 2014

Grim news from Reuters about Mt #Ontake. "Over 30 feared dead after Japan volcano spews ash and rock". http://t.co/g5y2bE1lQM
— Dave McGarvie (@subglacial) September 28, 2014

Rescue efforts resume on Japan's Mount #Ontake http://t.co/Q93fujq7jh pic.twitter.com/AqMkXMCGh5
— BBC News Asia (@BBCNewsAsia) September 28, 2014

Nagano Pref: 10 with serious injuries, 17 with lighter injuries, and 32 missing after the eruption of Mt. #Ontake. http://t.co/BApRfXJFm6
— Yuri Hiranuma (@YuriHiranuma) September 27, 2014

#Eruption Mt #Ontakesan #volcano (Japan) claims at least 31 lives! - http://t.co/fNgMXvww2Z pic.twitter.com/azVYAYzTcF
— Earthquake Report (@Quake_Tracker) September 28, 2014

The past few months, I've become addicted to the Iceland livecam for Bardarbunga, a significant volcano that is close enough to Europe to really cause trouble if it were to blow up suddenly. Bardarbunga is still significant for it's immense cloud of deadly sulfur dioxide that is already causing health concerns there in Iceland. And the Holuhraun lava field is growing by leaps and bounds. At night you can see the hot lava glowing as it streams away towards the sea. The main caldera of Bardarbunga seems to be sinking with every earthquake, and at night glows like the Eye of Sauron from Tolkien's tales - inspired by the old Icelandic sagas.

Bardarbunga Cam 1
Bardarbunga Cam 2





This video shows a volcano called Mt. Tavurvur that recently exploded in Papua New Guinea. Brace yourself for the boom! You can almost see the sound wave, and certainly can see the large boulders hitting the water. The people who caught this on camera were lucky not to be closer.



A report came out this weekend that Mt. Saint Helens in Washington State is possibly coming back to life. In fact, scientists don't really know why it ever stopped erupting.

From King5 News

Geologists were surprised that the mountain stopped erupting in 1986. "Many of us were expecting it to continue a while," said USGS seismologist Seth Moran.

The second lava dome, which started appearing in 2004, appeared at a different spot in the crater. Lava that appeared from 2004-08 was much more solid than during the earlier phase.

Even though the lava dome hasn't erupted since 2008, its shape still is changing.

"As it cools, it fractures and settles and falls apart," said Dan Dzurisin, a USGS geologist. Rockfall has also been changing the shape of the crater rim.

And 5 miles below the volcano, there are signs that the magma chamber that fueled both eruptions is recharging. Dzurisin said the USGS is focusing on the rate of recharging and whether the magma can compress in the chamber, rather than flowing toward an outlet to the earth's surface.

Mt. Saint Helens in Washington

Then there was an earthquake swarm this weekend under Mammoth Lakes, an ancient dormant volcano near the California/Nevada border. The USGS put out a warning that the movement had volcanic traits, while other experts believe it is merely shaking due to pressure from hot springs. (Of course hot springs go along with volcanoes, so....)

From UPI

The quakes struck the region between 9 a.m. Thursday and 1:49 a.m. Friday.
The USGS said it's because Mammoth Mountain, a lava-dome complex, lies along the rim of the Long Valley Caldera.
"Recent volcanic unrest, including seismicity, gas emission, and tree kill, is thought to be related to a dike intrusion beneath Mammoth Mountain in 1989," the USGS website said. "Both Long Valley Caldera and Mammoth Mountain have experienced episodes of heightened unrest over the last few decades (earthquakes, ground uplift, and/or volcanic gas emissions). As a result, the USGS manages a dense array of field sensors providing the real-time data needed to track unrest and assess hazards."

LA Times

The earthquakes may have been triggered by water pressure from area hot springs shifting through the ground surface, stressing tectonic plates. Scientists, Shelly said, are closely watching the earthquake swarm, but don’t believe it's connected to any magmatic activity.
Shelly said seismic analysts plan to review the swarm and update locations and magnitudes of the quakes, but the activity is not nearly on the size and scale of what was measured in the 1980s and 1990s.
. . . The Long Valley caldera is one of the most seismically active regions in the state, and is part of a quiet network of 17 volcanoes throughout California. Many of the older volcanoes haven't been active for thousands of years.
The last time the Long Valley caldera erupted was 50,000 years ago.

Understanding the Polar Vortex

Here's why most of the United States has been in the Deep Freeze this winter:

From the New York Post

“The Big Chill,” NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center post read. “Blistering cold air from the Arctic plunged southward this winter, breaking US temperature records.”
“A persistent pattern of winds spins high above the Arctic in winter. The winds, known as the polar vortex, typically blow in a fairly tight circular formation. But in late December 2013 and early January 2014, the winds loosened and frigid Arctic air spilled farther south than usual, deep into the continental United States.”

NASA Video Explaining the Polar Vortex

Discovery Channel Plans Tribute to Stormchasers Killed by Tornado in El Reno, Oklahoma

RIP Tim Samaras, Paul Samaras, and Carl Young ~ Team Twistex

Discovery Channel Storm Chasers Tribute Premieres
Wednesday, June 5, 2013 at 10e|9c

From the Twistex Facebook

Information about the funeral services for Tim, Paul, & Carl -- and where to send sympathy cards:

The service for Tim and Paul will be held Thursday at 1pm at Mission Hills Church, 620 SouthPark Drive in Littleton, CO.

Sympathy cards should be sent to Jim Samaras, 7985 Witney Place, Lone Tree, CO 80124.

Carl's service will be held Saturday at 12 with burial at 3pm at McFarlane Mortuary in South Lake Tahoe, CA.

Sympathy cards should be sent to Bob Young, Box 8604, South Lake Tahoe, CA 96158.

Memorials for Carl should be sent to Ventana Wildlife Society.

From Discovery Channel:

We are deeply saddened by the loss of Tim Samaras, his son Paul and their colleague Carl Young who died Friday, May 31st doing what they love: chasing storms.

Chasing storms had been a part of Tim Samaras's life for over 25 years. Ten years ago, Tim developed his own tornado probes to record meteorological data inside of tornadoes.

Inspired by a two-month adventure chasing storms across the Great Plains, Carl Young left a career in Hollywood to study tornado dynamics and ultimately earn a masters degree in atmospheric science from the University of Nevada, Reno.

While attending a meteorological conference, Carl met Tim, who encouraged him to collect meteorological data from inside tornadoes as the principal focus of his thesis research.

Every spring since 2003, the two headed out together and tracked down over 125 tornadoes. Their mission was to help understand why tornadoes form in order to increase warning times in Tornado Alley.

Tim and Carl's work was the subject of Discovery Channel's Storm Chasers series, which premiered on October 17, 2007 and ran for five seasons.

Our thoughts and prayers go out to Tim and Carl's friends and families.

From National Geographic

Tim Samaras, one of the world's best-known storm chasers, died in Friday's El Reno, Oklahoma, tornado, along with his 24-year-old son, a gifted filmmaker, according to a statement from Samaras's brother.

"They all unfortunately passed away but doing what they LOVED," Jim Samaras, Tim's brother, wrote on Facebook, saying that storm chaser Carl Young was also killed. "I look at it that he is in the 'big tornado in the sky.'"

. . . Samaras's interest in tornadoes began when he was six, after he saw the movie The Wizard of Oz. For the past 20 years, he spent May and June traveling through Tornado Alley, an area that has the highest frequency of tornadoes in the world. He worked with his son Paul, who was known for capturing cyclones on camera.

From CNN

Friday's tornado took a sudden turn that surprised many observers, CNN meteorologist Chad Myers said.

"It was a wobbler. And it was big. ... I think the left-hand turn made a big difference on how this thing was chased as well and why people were killed and why people were injured in their vehicles," he said. "A vehicle is not a place to be in any tornado, especially a big one like that, and those men doing their job, those field scientists out there doing their jobs, were killed in the process."

Tim Samaras founded TWISTEX, the Tactical Weather Instrumented Sampling in Tornadoes Experiment, to help learn more about tornadoes and increase lead time for warnings, according to the official website.

. . . Doug Kiesling, a videographer who chases storms and calls himself "The Weather Paparazzi," said the three men were more than storm chasers. "They're researchers," he said.

"This thing is really shaking up everyone in the chasing community," he said. "We knew this day would happen someday, but nobody would imagine that it would happen to Tim. Tim was one of the safest people to go out there. ... He's had close calls, but he's always had an escape route."

Happy Place Diversion ~ Astronaut Sings "Space Oddity" IN Space

source: crunchiness

So enjoyable!

CHRIS HADFIELD SINGS SPACE ODDITY IN SPACE!“Hallo Spaceboy...”Commander Chris Hadfield, currently on... fb.me/24sZNW5ly
— David Bowie Official (@DavidBowieReal) May 12, 2013

How it all came about via David Bowie's Facebook:

It’s possibly the most poignant version of the song ever created and you may recognise the name of one of those involved in its creation.

We’re talking about Chris's fellow Canadian, the lovely Emm Gryner, who was a part of the Bowie live band in 1999/2000. Here’s what she said on her blog regarding her involvement:

“The task was in front of me. I came up with a piano part. i then enlisted my friend, producer and fellow Canadian Joe Corcoran to take my piano idea and Chris' vocal and blow it up into a fully produced song. Drums! mellotrons! fuzz bass! We also incorporated into the track ambient space station noises which Chris had put on his Soundcloud. I was mostly blown away by how pure and earnest Chris' singing is on this track. Like weightlessness and his voice agreed to agree.

And voila! And astronaut sings Space Oddity in space! I was so honoured to be asked to be a part of this. You wouldn't get too many chances to make a recording like this and not only that, to make music with someone who - through his vibrant communications with kids in schools to his breathtaking photos to his always patient and good-humoured demeanour - has done more for science and space than anyone else this generation. Planet earth IS blue, and there's nothing left for Chris Hadfield to do. Right. Safe travels home Commander! ”

From Guardian UK

A Soyuz space capsule carrying a three-man crew returning from a five-month mission to the International Space Station landed safely Tuesday on the steppes of Kazakhstan.

The Canadian astronaut Chris Hadfield, American Thomas Marshburn and Russian Roman Romanenko landed as planned south-east of the town of Dzhezkazgan at 8.31am local time on Tuesday. The Soyuz TMA-07M capsule slowly descended by parachute on to the steppes under clear, sunny skies. Russian search and rescue helicopters hovered over the landing site for a quick recovery effort.

. . . Hadfield, 53, an engineer and former test pilot from Milton, Ontario, was Canada's first professional astronaut to live aboard the space station and became the first Canadian in charge of a spacecraft. He relinquished command of the space station on Sunday.

Hadfield bowed out of orbit by posting a music video on YouTube on Sunday his own custom version of David Bowie's Space Oddity. "With deference to the genius of David Bowie, here's Space Oddity, recorded on Station. A last glimpse of the World," Hadfield said via Twitter. It is believed to be the first music video made in space.

Hadfield sang often in orbit, using a guitar already aboard the complex, and even took part in a live, Canadian coast-to-coast concert in February that included the Barenaked Ladies' Ed Robertson and a youth choir.

"It's just been an extremely fulfilling and amazing experience end to end," Hadfield told mission control on Monday. "From this Canadian to all the rest of them, I offer an enormous debt of thanks."

Meteorite Hits Russia!

Who needs fiction these days? We have a Pope resigning, a nuclear test by North Korea, a Cruise Ship adrift at sea with people trapped on board for days, and now a meteorite has crashed into Russia, blowing out windows for miles and injuring 400 people or more. Did I mention that there is amazing video of the whole thing, including the delayed sonic booms or earthquakes (or both)?

And it's not the only Meteor expected near the earth today - no, really. Another large one is expected to come so close to earth this afternoon that it will move between our planet and the communications satellites that bring us our TV signals. Scared yet?

As Yoda said, "You Will Be."

Eerie Predictions in this ABC Video from yesterday. They even mention the Tunguska Event in 1908 during which an alleged meteorite crashed into northern Russia with the force of several atomic bombs, leveling trees for hundreds of miles. *shiver*


NASA will be following the giant asteroid today in a Livecast:

...The half-hour broadcast from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, Calif., will incorporate real-time animation to show the location of the asteroid in relation to Earth, along with live or near real-time views of the asteroid from observatories in Australia, weather permitting.
At the time of its closest approach to Earth at approximately 2:25 p.m. EST (11:25 a.m. PST/ 19:25 UTC), the asteroid will be about 17,150 miles (27,600 kilometers) above Earth's surface.
The commentary will be available via NASA TV and streamed live online at:

http://www.nasa.gov/ntv

and

http://www.ustream.tv/nasajpl2

In addition to the commentary, near real-time imagery of the asteroid's flyby before and after closest approach, made available to NASA by astronomers in Australia and Europe, weather permitting, will be streamed beginning at about noon EST (9 a.m. PST) and continuing through the afternoon at the following website:

http://www.ustream.tv/nasajpl2

A Ustream feed of the flyby from a telescope at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala., will be streamed for three hours starting at 9 p.m. EST (8 p.m. CST). To view the feed and ask researchers questions about the flyby via Twitter, visit:

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/nasa-msfc

Russian Livejournal with lots of pictures and videos

BBC News

A meteor crashing in the Urals of central Russia has reportedly injured at least 400 people, as the shockwave blew out windows and rocked buildings.

Most of those hurt suffered minor cuts and bruises but some received head injuries, Russian media report.

A fireball was seen streaking through the sky above the city of Yekaterinburg, followed by loud bangs.

The meteor is believed to have landed in a lake near Chebarkul, a town in the neighbouring Chelyabinsk region.

Much of the impact was felt in the city of Chelyabinsk, some 200km (125 miles) south of Yekaterinburg.

"It suddenly became as bright as if it was day”
~ Viktor Prokofiev, Yekaterinburg resident

"We saw a big burst of light, then went outside to see what it was and we heard a really loud thundering sound," Chelyabinsk resident Sergey Hametov told AP news agency by phone.

Officials say a large meteor partially burned up in the lower atmosphere, resulting in fragments falling earthwards.

This one will make you jump ~ be forewarned! Just brace yourself

2012 ~ Apocalypse Postponed ...Again

One of the first posts I wrote on this blog back in March 2012 was about the National Geographic TV show "Doomsday Preppers." I had watched a couple of episodes and was amazed at the level of fear and paranoia in these hoarders of spam, rice and guns.

Prepping for the Doomsday Olympics

I wrote:

. . . these people longing for Armageddon don't laugh very much.They are deadly serious about everything and just want to show off their mad survival skills in the end-of-the-world Olympics. They've given up on life, music, and fun in favor of fear mongering.
. . . I couldn't help but feel a little disturbed that one family has enough food for the next 20 years while other people are eating out of dumpsters. But this philosophy isn't about helping the "other people" - the belief is that the weak ones are going to be destroyed by the next disaster while the self-sufficient strong survive. Doomsday Prepping begins at home and ends at home. Like their brethren in the Republican Party who don't believe in "sharing the wealth" or "that dang socialism," Doomsday Preppers live in the Narcissistic States of America.

At the time I was thinking about Paul Ryan's budget and the whole Ayn Rand philosophy as something that drives these clannish survivalists. But now that both the election and the Doomsdays - Dec. 12 or Dec. 21 - have come and gone with nothing unusual happening, these folks now seem like regular old Tea Party members to me.

Cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs, they fit right in with Todd Akin and the other anti-science people, the unskewed polls people who reject the math in front of their eyes and believe what they want to believe. Their love of ammunition hoarding is second only to that of Wayne LaPierre of the NRA, and if they aren't vapor-locked in their underground bunkers right now, they are cheering on the Congressman who refuse to do anything while a great country takes a dive over a man-made fiscal cliff.

Many now say it's a "New Age" instead of the end of the world. Where will the Doomsday Preppers fit into that scenario? They don't consider "peace and quiet" a plausible future, so I imagine that they really are doomed to be marginalized just like the anarchy-based Tea Party and the Gun-Loving GOP. The New Age will sail on without them, and good riddance.

Death of a Yellowstone Wolf

A wolf with a radio collar wandered out of Yellowstone National Park and sadly was immediately shot by a hunter. It wasn't just any wolf, but the Alpha Female of a famous wolf pack which had been studied by scientists for many years. This is just devastating for the ecosystem.

Who was the hunter? No one knows, but clearly he was just aching to kill a wolf. More's the pity. It amazes me that the same people who would sue for a million dollars if someone shot their domesticated horse or dog don't give a crap about an irreplaceable wolf who is a treasure to our country and really belongs to us all.

So many wolves have been murdered this year - yes, wantonly murdered - that Montana just this morning cancelled their wolf season in certain areas, from the Laramie News:

Fish, Wildlife and Parks Commission chairman Bob Ream said commissioners were addressing only "the particular and unique situation" of collared wolves being shot.

"It seems to be kind of a compromise," Ream said. "Is it political? Yeah, wolves are political."

. . . Park officials say at least seven Yellowstone wolves _ including five wearing tracking collars _ were shot in recent weeks by hunters in Montana, Idaho and Wyoming.

Also shot were four collared wolves originally from the park but now living outside it. Three more shot in the vicinity of the park had unknown origins and were not wearing collars, park officials said.

Saturday marks the opening day of Montana's first wolf trapping season since the animals lost federal protections last year.

From the New York Times:

The wolf, known as 832F to researchers, was the alpha female of the park’s highly visible Lamar Canyon pack and had become so well known that some wildlife watchers referred to her as a “rock star.” The animal had been a tourist favorite for most of the past six years.

The wolf was fitted with a $4,000 collar with GPS tracking technology, which is being returned, said Daniel Stahler, a project director for Yellowstone’s wolf program. Based on data from the wolf’s collar, researchers knew that her pack rarely ventured outside the park, and then only for brief periods, Dr. Stahler said.

This year’s hunting season in the northern Rockies has been especially controversial because of the high numbers of popular wolves and wolves fitted with research collars that have been killed just outside Yellowstone in Idaho, Montana and Wyoming.

. . . “She is the most famous wolf in the world,” said Jimmy Jones, a wildlife photographer who lives in Los Angeles and whose portrait of 832F appears in the current issue of the magazine American Scientist.

Etch-A-Sketch Junior: Gov. Bobby Jindal Wants GOP to be Smart Now

Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana wants the GOP to stop being the "Party of Stupid."

Washington Post

Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal criticized the Republican party as too anti-intellectual and too beholden to the wealthy.
He said that “offensive, bizarre” comments have damaged the party’s brand. “We’ve also had enough of this dumbed-down conservatism,” he added. “We need to stop being simplistic, we need to trust the intelligence of the American people and we need to stop insulting the intelligence of the voters.”

Not so fast, Mr. Etch-A-Sketch Junior.

This is the guy who made his debut on national TV by making fun of money spent on volcano monitoring. Just after Jindal made that remark, Redoubt Volcano in Alaska shut down air traffic for days so that even Sarah Palin and family couldn't get back home. Then we had the huge shut-down all over Europe from the Icelandic Volcano, which could certainly happen again. And we see the damage from the Japanese Tsunami caused by a massive earthquake, yet the U.S. hasn't kept up with warning buoys near Hawaii that might protect even more people - because of anti-science people in Congress who won't provide money. 

Scientific American

...“Instead of monitoring volcanoes, what Congress should be monitoring is the eruption of spending in Washington, D.C.,” Jindal said.

What was that all about? Well, Congress authorized some of that $140 million to be spent on volcano monitoring, but not all of it, ProPublica notes in a blow-by-blow of the economic recovery package. That line, ProPublica says, is directed to “U.S. Geological Survey facilities and equipment, including stream gages, seismic and volcano monitoring systems and national map activities.”

Critics writing in The New Republic and elsewhere say Jindal’s jab at volcano monitoring was disingenuous. The USGS is charged with working to “reduce the vulnerability of the people and areas most at risk from natural hazards,” including volcanoes, earthquakes, tsunamis and wildfires which it says cost hundreds of lives and billions of dollars annually in disaster money. Between 50 and 70 volcanoes erupt each year, according to the Smithsonian's global volcanism program. And between 1980 and 1990, they killed at least 26,000 people and caused 450,000 people to flee their homes, the USGS says. “Why does Bobby Jindal think monitoring volcanoes is a bad thing for the government to be doing?” Nick Baumann writes in Mother Jones. “There doesn't seem to be any immediate way for private enterprise to profit from monitoring volcanoes (maybe selling volcano insurance?), but there is obviously a huge public benefit from making sure volcanoes are monitored: warning people if a volcano is going to erupt. Isn't that obvious?”

Jindal is also a fan of charter schools, in which taxpayer money is given to religious institutions for whatever unscientific beliefs they want to teach.

Article from Slate

...he made a bargain with the religious right and compromised science and science education for the children of his state. In fact, Jindal’s actions at one point persuaded leading scientific organizations, including the Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology, to cross New Orleans off their list of future meeting sites (PDF).

What did Jindal do to produce a hornet’s nest of “mad scientists,” as Times-Picayune writer James Gill described them? He signed into law, in Gill’s words, the “Louisiana Science Education Act (LSEA), which is named for what it is designed to destroy.” The act allows “supplemental textbooks and other instructional materials” to be brought into classrooms to support the “open and objective discussion” of certain “scientific theories,” including, of course, evolution. As educators who have heard such coded language before quickly realized, the act was intended to promote creationism as science. In April, Kevin Carman, dean of the College of Science at Louisiana State University, testified before the Louisiana Senate’s Education Committee that two top scientists had rejected offers to come to LSU because of the LSEA, and the school may lose more scientists in the future.

And now Jindal is poised to spend millions of dollars of state money to support the teaching of creationism in private schools.

Nate Silver, Polls and Arithmatic

Well, Nate Silver was right. Exactly right. He couldn't have been more right. His Monte Carlo models for 2012 accurately predicted the number of electoral votes each candidate would receive, as well as which states would go blue for Obama. Well-done, Sir. You have now become part of election history, and I'm glad you also stuck to your guns when others were taunting you and with Politico calling you a "one-term celebrity." I guess they should have said "Won Term Celebrity."

What's important is that you get the last laugh. :) I think you'll be around in the next election. I'm not sure about the hacks at Breitbart or those guys from Politico. What were their names again?

Excerpt of Silver's Book "The Signal and the Noise" via Daily Beast

Political news, and especially the important news that really affects the campaign, proceeds at an irregular pace. But news coverage is produced every day. Most of it is filler, packaged in the form of stories that are designed to obscure its unimportance. Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.

Snark Amendment: Pundits Wagering War on Nate Silver
Previous Posts on Nate Silver and the Polls



The Romney camp was "shellshocked" over the fact that the Republican-leaning polls were the ones that were skewed, since the party-line had been the opposite for months.

Rush, Dick and Rove Skewed into Frenzy by Polls

In the last days of the campaign, people were coming out of the woodwork to predict a landslide, which had nothing to do with the reality of the polls, most of which showed Obama ahead at that time. I gathered up their quotes and tweets here:

Snark Amendment: Republicans Predict Romney Landslide

Yeah, the GOP got a landslide, all right. They are going to be digging their way out of it for years to come!



I think one reason ordinary voters drank that Kool-Aid in addition to the Romney Camp, was that some spineless pundits in the mainstream were hedging bets on the outside chance that all the Democratic pollsters were A. Delusional and B. Liars. For instance, CNN kept talking about the "razor thin margin" which somehow gave the advantage to Mitt instead of Obama, when their own internal polling showed otherwise. Chris Cillizza at Washington Post moved Ohio into the "toss-up" column just because Romney needed it so much to win.

The Dems who took a "poll of polls" approach and checked in with statisticians and oddsmakers were not nearly as confused. Yes, we were also nervous and scared about the unknown outcome, yes, but we were not AS confused about the data. And in the end, this election was all about the math.

Bookmark these websites for future elections - math works!

538.com - Nate Silver
ElectoralVote.com
Princeton - Sam Wang
PredictWise


Below is a list compiled by professor Costas Panagopoulos, Ph.D. of Fordham University. It shows which pollsters did a good job of accurately predicting the election outcome. It's a good idea to save this list for the next election so you can avoid the polls from CNN down to AP because those were the most biased and least accurate.

Fordham University List of Pollsters Ranked from Most Accurate to Least Accurate

Most (22) polls overestimated Romney support, while six (6)
overestimated Obama strength (indicated with a * below), but none of the 28 national preelection polls I examined had a significant partisan bias.
The following list ranks the 28 organizations by the predictive accuracy of their final, national pre-election estimates (as reported on pollster.com).

1. Ipsos/Reuters
2. YouGov
3. PPP (D)
3. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP
4. Angus-Reid*
5. ABC/WP*
6. Pew Research*
6. Hartford Courant/UConn*
7. Purple Strategies
8. NBC/WSJ
8. CBS/NYT
8. YouGov/Economist
9. UPI/CVOTER
10. IBD/TIPP
11. Democracy Corps (D)*
12. CNN/ORC
12. Monmouth/SurveyUSA
12. Politico/GWU/Battleground
12. FOX News
12. Washington Times/JZ Analytics
12. Newsmax/JZ Analytics
12. American Research Group
12. Gravis Marketing
13. National Journal*
14. Rasmussen
14. Gallup
15. NPR
16. AP/GfK

Hurricane Sandy ~ Predictions Were Right and Science Saved Lives

Hindsight is always 20-20 especially when dealing with predicting the weather. But with Sandy, the forecasters got it all too right, even though many on Twitter and elsewhere made fun of the moniker "Frankenstorm," and CNN News supposedly banned the use of the name. Yet the hurricane really developed into the worst of the worst-case-scenarios and everyone's nightmare storm.

Luckily local officials listened to the scientists at NOAA and science saved lives.

Flying Man Felix Baumgartner

This is truly amazing! Felix Baumgartner broke the sound barrier after jumping out of a balloon at the edge of the atmosphere. I don't see how he survived. It's really cool that he jumped over Roswell, New Mexico - home of the infamous "Roswell UFO Crash" and the "Extraterrestrial Highway."

My son thinks this will make a great Red Bull commercial, too, LOL.




Huffington Post Story:

ROSWELL, N.M. -- Officials say that Felix Baumgartner has become the first skydiver to break the speed of sound.
At a news conference, Brian Utley of the International Federation of Sports Aviation said Baumgartner reached a maximum speed of 833.9 mph during his jump Sunday over the New Mexico desert.
That amounts to Mach 1.24, which is faster than the speed of sound. No one has ever reached that speed wearing only a high-tech suit.
Baumgartner says that traveling faster than sound is "hard to describe because you don't feel it." With no reference points, "you don't know how fast you travel."

Earth to GOP: The Polls are Arithmatic

"Skew" is another interesting phrase the GOP loves to use. Here's the defintion via Online Etymology Dictionary:

skew (v.)    late 15c., from O.N.Fr. eskiuer "shy away from, avoid," O.Fr. eschiver (see eschew). Meaning "depict unfairly" first recorded 1872, on notion of being slanted. Statistical sense dates from 1929. Related: Skewed; skewing. The adjectival meaning "slanting, turned to one side" is recorded from c.1600; noun meaning "slant, deviation" first attested 1680s.

It is ridiculous to imply that "all" the polls are "skewed" except for certain bad polls by biased people like Rasmussen or Karl Rove that show their guy Romney leading. Isn't it more likely that they are the ones who are skewed instead of the 15 other pollsters, some of whom are non-partisan or who take a poll of polls average?

But none of that matters if you are Republican clinging to false hope. They just can't accept that the very likable and inspirational - although African American - President Obama is way ahead in the polls. Because . . . arithmatic.

As of tonight, Nate Silver of 538 Blog is giving Barack Obama an 84% chance - well, let's be scientific and say "83.9%" chance of winning the Presidency.

Mitt Romney has, therefore, only 16.1% chance, no rounding necessary.

That's the mathematical truth, unless you are a Republican in denial.

The polls are what they are - just a statistical snapshot of the country's rejection of goofy-strange Mitt Romney as President of the United States. Simple as that.

But denial is strong in them, like the Force. For instance, here's a stammering and sputtering Karl Rove spinning about how "unscientific" the polls are, but even Bill O'Reilly isn't drinking the kool-aid on Fox News:

O'REILLY: . . . Are these polls dishonest?

ROVE: No. Look, we endow them with a false scientific precision they simply don't have. If you've got nine points more Democrats than Republicans and you're nine points more --
(CROSSTALK)

O'REILLY: You you're going to have a poll that reflects that.

ROVE: -- yes, nine points more Obama. Think about this. Romney and Obama get each roughly the same percentage of Republicans and Democrats as -- as their opponent. That is to say they carry their -- their base overwhelmingly. Romney, among Independents is winning by three points.

So -- so if Romney is winning the Independents and winning the Republicans do you think in a battle ground state like Florida, he's nine points down and the answer is no....

ROVE: . . . So look, we've got to be careful about, you know, we have a proliferation of these polls. There have been 87 national polls in the last 30 days. That's more polls than were run in the last six months of the 1980 presidential race.


O'REILLY: All right.

ROVE: Last week -- last week alone, we had 51 state level polls; and the week before that, 41.
(CROSSTALK)

O'REILLY: I understand that but -- but here -- here -- look, from my point of view as a news analyst and I believe that the folks know I'm honest in that regard, when news agencies like the CBS News on the radio report the polling and it shows that Barack Obama has leapt out to a big lead in Florida and Ohio, that gets inside people's minds. They remember that. And that can only help the President. That helps the President.

ROVE: Sure.

O'REILLY: Because the perception is he is going to be the winner.

. . . O'REILLY: All right, real quick, real quick, your board, the Karl Rove board where is the race in Ohio and Florida in your opinion?

ROVE: Well, toss-up in both states.

O'REILLY: Toss-up? It could go either way at this point in history.

ROVE: Sure.

O'REILLY: All right, Mr. Rove. We appreciate that.

Then tonight, we have Wolf Blitzer of CNN taking a stand for a change, although he rolls it back quickly to the "toss-up" idea, via Media Matters:


Transcript from CNN

Ashleigh Banfield: CNN's Wolf Blitzer joining me live from Washington, D.C.

Wolf, the Romney camp and their allies are suggesting that a lot of those so-called mainstream polls are skewed in some way, that they're not accurate. I want to play a short clip from Mr. Romney's political director, Rich Beeson.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RICH BEESON, POLITICAL DIRECTOR, ROMNEY CAMPAIGN: We trust our internal polls. I don't make any campaign decisions based off what I read in the "Washington Post." So I'm not going to get into the specifics of what our polls say or don't say. I trust our numbers and that's what we're basing our decisions off of.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BANFIELD: But he won't give us those numbers.

So, Wolf, here's how it goes. Every time bad numbers come out, I hear campaigns saying, we don't use those numbers, we use our own. But I never hear that when the numbers are good. Am I wrong?

WOLF BLITZER, CNN HOST, "THE SITUATION ROOM": You're not wrong, but the fundamental fact of what's going on right now is the numbers in these key battleground states, according to almost all of the reputable national polls out there, show that Obama is ahead in most of these key battleground states. That's obviously disconcerting to a lot of Republicans. Some of them, like Karl Rove, for example, have repeatedly gone out there and suggested that these polls are biased against the Republicans because they're oversampling Democrats, for example, as opposed to Republicans. And as a result, don't trust these polls, they're not reliable. So it's sort of convenient for a lot of these Republicans, like Karl Rove, to go after the NBC poll or the ABC poll or CNN polls.

But what they don't say is that the FOX News polls are showing almost exactly the same thing. FOX has some good polls. For example, their most recent battleground states, Ashleigh, in Ohio and Virginia, show Obama ahead of Romney by seven points. In Florida, the FOX News poll shows the President ahead of Romney by five points. Very similar to all these other so-called mainstream poll numbers. You don't hear them complaining about the FOX News polls. They're complaining about the others, so there is an imbalance there.

If you take a look at all these polls, and we at CNN did a poll of polls, you show -- it clearly shows that the President is ahead slightly in almost all of these key battleground states. And I think that's pretty significant.

BANFIELD: We were just showing Virginia, and now here is Florida, and they're saying exactly what you just said, Wolf. And here is the thing. Yes, we're 40 days out. But early voting -- we started the program talking about the significance of early voting and the volumes of people who do early voting. Which brings me to my next question, regardless of what the Romney camp is saying about their internal polls, is it entirely possible they are seeing these polls that are now, as I said, solidifying with early voters and saying it may be time to spend the money on down-ballot contenders and go for the House and go for the Senate because we've lost those states at this point?

[Blogger Note: Wolf immediately rolls back his comments so as not to offend the GOP. Typical. The truth is never enough.]

BLITZER: Yes, I think it's way too premature to say they've lost those states. It's early. I've seen polls turn around the final 40 days of an election. They certainly can turn around in this election. And let's not forget --
(CROSSTALK)

BANFIELD: But even with the early voting numbers, Wolf?

BLITZER: Even with the early voting numbers. This is not over by any means, Ashleigh. There's three presidential debates, one vice presidential debate. And I remember very vividly -- you probably were too young to remember -- the 1980 race.

RIP Neil Armstrong

The astronauts in NASA's space program meant so much to our country, and inspired the boomer generation to create everything from MTV to Cellular Phones to the Internet to the Mars Curiousity. We need more heroes like this, who literally could "boldly go where no one had gone before," especially in these times when things seem to be crumbling here on earth and we can't agree on anything.

President Obama paid homage today:

From USA Today

As he stepped off the lunar module and set foot on the moon's surface, he said "that's one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind,'' underscoring a centuries-old fantasy among human kind and a high point in the Cold War era space race between the U.S. and the Soviet Union. An estimated 600 million TV viewers watched the event, engrossed by the surreal, grainy black-and-white footage.

Saturday, President Barack Obama hailed Armstrong as one of "the greatest American heroes — not just of his time, but of all time.''

"When he and his fellow crew members lifted off aboard Apollo 11 in 1969, they carried with them the aspirations of an entire nation,'' the president said in a statement. "They set out to show the world that the American spirit can see beyond what seems unimaginable — that with enough drive and ingenuity, anything is possible. And when Neil stepped foot on the surface of the moon for the first time, he delivered a moment of human achievement that will never be forgotten."

Obama Jokes that "Backwards" Todd Akin Missed Science Class

Via MattBors.com

LOL ~ the President last night at a fundraiser via Politico:

“Recently some of you have been paying attention to the commentary about the senator from Missouri, Mr. Akin,” Obama said. “The interesting thing here is that this, this is an individual who sits on the House Committee on Science and Technology but somehow missed science class. And it’s representative of the desire to go backwards instead of forwards and fight fights that we thought were settled 20 or 30 years ago.”

Via LA Times:

Meanwhile on Fox News, Ann Coulter is raving about Akins again, upset that he wouldn't follow her advice and drop out of the Missouri Senate race.

Via Daily Caller

“They have been pushing this war on women thing forever. They had nothing until now,” said Coulter. “Now they’ve got something. Every Republican is going to be asked about this.”

“Now we can complain about media bias,” she said. “But that is a fact. This is all we’re going to hear about. It’s not like [anyone] did this to him. He was trying to show off with the fancy footwork on what happens to a woman’s body after rape. How about, ‘Yes, rape and incest and life of the mother. Now give us the other 2 million babies’? Can we just stick with that as our argument?”

Now that the deadline for Akin’s possible withdrawal from the race has passed, Coulter said she hates the GOP congressman.

“I’m glad that I didn’t do the interview yesterday,” she said. “I didn’t want to be on radio yesterday because I couldn’t officially hate Todd Akin until the 5 p.m. deadline. Once he refused to resign — not even resign. He doesn’t hold the office — to withdraw as the candidate. Now I can officially hate him. If he had withdrawn, now we can rally around him. Say he is a fine man, good Republican doing what’s best for the party. Now we can’t say that. Now I officially hate him.”

Don't be so angry, Ann - we figured it out long ago from listening to Rush Limbaugh talk about Feminazis. Sandra Fluke was another clue. Oh, and Governor Ultrasound in Virginia - why don't you hate him for a while? Oh yeah - he's writing the Party Platform with the exact same language that Akin uses. Hypocrites, thy name is Republican.

Todd Akin Vows to Stay in the Race

Akin told Mike Huckabee that he was going to stay in the race today, even though everyone in Washington was begging him to drop out. He must have taken some "going rogue" lessons from Sarah Palin, eh?

His statements today are almost as incredible as what he said on Sunday. Almost.

From the Washington Post:

“I’ve had a chance now to have run through a primary, and the party people said when you win the primary then we’ll be with you. Well, they were with us. Then I said one word and one sentence on one day, and everything changed,” Akin told Huckabee, an early supporter. “I haven’t done anything morally or ethically wrong. It does seem like a little bit of an overreaction.”

. . . Akin said that his supporters and “good friends, closer than brothers,” had asked him to stick it out. He added that he has received “continuing calls from other congressman” expressing their support. (He did not name any of these congressman.)

He compared his race to the GOP primary, when he was outraised by rivals and lacked institutional backing. And he referred to the potential to attract more independent voters. “I realize that there are now a lot of other bravehearts that don’t fit into the political parties exactly,” he said. “I believe there is a cause here, and there is a part of the message that’s missing, and a lot of the people feel left out of the parties.

“What we’re seeing right now is a tremendous outpouring of support from just regular small people,” he said. “They’re not the big party people.”

No, but you can bet the "Big Party People" are furious right now because having Akin in this race will keep the topics of abortion and "personhood" in the center of controversy until November. And that road leads right back to his good buddy, Paul Ryan. Ha!

All my Liveblog Posts about Akin from Snark Amendment:
Todd's Countdown to Destiny
Todd Akin Under the Bus
Akins Empty Chair Appears on CNN
Akin Breakin' in Missouri - Should he Stay or Go?
Todd Akin (R-MO) Needs Legitimate Sex Education

Ryan and Akin, Akin and Ryan

Ryan and Akin.
Akin and Ryan.
Tweedledum and Tweedledee.
Two sides of the same coin.
Cut from the same cloth.
Thick as Thieves.

MoveOn.org has a new graphic you can share.
Click the link to share on Facebook or Twitter.

Excellent.

Watching the Mars Curiousity Landing

The landing is imminent! I will update with video of the landing when it is available.

Update: Video Recap:

Watch live here:   Live broadcast by Ustream  

What is a "Derecho" Anyway?

"The Line Storm," by John Steuart Curry, 1897-1946

Lately there have been several lines of devastating storms moving through the Ohio Valley, and meteorologists have been referring to them as a "derecho." I've lived in the U.S. all my life and never heard that term, even though we routinely get straight-line winds and severe weather here in the Southeast. They never mentioned it last year on the day of the April tornadoes, although that line of storms lasted for hundreds of miles, which makes me think that tornadoes trump derechos. Officially, the terrible line of storms that passed over the Northeast last week were not part of a derecho:

Pitch black now but 10 mins ago @twcbreaking @NewYorkology #derecho #NYC twitter.com/davidbrunonyc/…
— david bruno (@davidbrunonyc) July 26, 2012

LA Times Story

Joey Picca , a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, said in a telephone interview with the Los Angeles Times from his office in Upton N.Y. on Long Island. “What we saw yesterday wasn’t a derecho in the traditional sense because it wasn’t widespread enough. Although we did see a large line of thunderstorms, it was lacking the true intensity you would like to see in a derecho.”
A derecho is defined as an event that has wind gusts of at least 58 mph and leaves a swath of damage for a minimum of 240 miles, according to the U.S. Storm Prediction Center.

So the phenomenon is actually rare, but with global warming raising the mercury it it could certainly happen again, so let's get educated by going directly to NOAA for the definition:

Definition of a derecho
A derecho (pronounced similar to "deh-REY-cho" in English, or pronounced phonetically as "") is a widespread, long-lived wind storm that is associated with a band of rapidly moving showers or thunderstorms. Although a derecho can produce destruction similar to that of tornadoes, the damage typically is directed in one direction along a relatively straight swath. As a result, the term "straight-line wind damage" sometimes is used to describe derecho damage. By definition, if the wind damage swath extends more than 240 miles (about 400 kilometers) and includes wind gusts of at least 58 mph (93 km/h) or greater along most of its length, then the event may be classified as a derecho.

Origin of the term "derecho"
The word "derecho" was coined by Dr. Gustavus Hinrichs, a physics professor at the University of Iowa, in a paper published in the American Meteorological Journal in 1888. A defining excerpt from the paper can be seen in this figure showing a derecho crossing Iowa on July 31, 1877. Hinrichs chose this terminology for thunderstorm-induced straight-line winds as an analog to the word tornado.

"Derecho" is a Spanish word that can be defined as "direct" or "straight ahead." (Click here to hear a pronounciation of the word "derecho"). In contrast, the word "tornado" is thought by some, including Hinrichs, to have been derived from the Spanish word "tornar," which means "to turn." Because derecho is a Spanish word, the plural term is "derechos;" there is no letter "e" after the letter "o."

A web page about Gustavus Hinrichs has been created by Ray Wolf of the Davenport, Iowa National Weather Service Forecast Office. The page provides information on Hinrichs' background, and on his development of the term "derecho" in the late 1800s. Wolf's page also briefly discusses how the term "derecho" has come into more common use in recent years.

Farewell to Sally Ride

The first American woman in space is gone much too soon.


From her company website
Sally Ride Science

Sally Ride died peacefully on July 23rd, 2012 after a courageous 17-month battle with pancreatic cancer. Sally lived her life to the fullest, with boundless energy, curiosity, intelligence, passion, joy, and love. Her integrity was absolute; her spirit was immeasurable; her approach to life was fearless.

Sally was a physicist, the first American woman to fly in space, a science writer, and the president and CEO of Sally Ride Science. She had the rare ability to understand the essence of things and to inspire those around her to join her pursuits.

Sally’s historic flight into space captured the nation’s imagination and made her a household name. She became a symbol of the ability of women to break barriers and a hero to generations of adventurous young girls. After retiring from NASA, Sally used her high profile to champion a cause she believed in passionately—inspiring young people, especially girls, to stick with their interest in science, to become scientifically literate, and to consider pursuing careers in science and engineering.

In addition to Tam O’Shaughnessy, her partner of 27 years, Sally is survived by her mother, Joyce; her sister, Bear; her niece, Caitlin, and nephew, Whitney; her staff of 40 at Sally Ride Science; and many friends and colleagues around the country.

From Space.com

Sally Ride, the first American woman to travel in space, has died at 61.

Ride had been fighting pancreatic cancer for 17 months and died peacefully, her company Sally Ride Science announced today (July 23). When she was 32, Ride blasted off on the STS-7 mission of the space shuttle Challenger, breaking through the highest glass ceiling for U.S. women to date.

During her historic mission, which deployed two communications satellites, Ride also became the first woman to use the shuttle's robotic arm in space.

From USA Today

"Sally was a national hero and a powerful role model. She inspired generations of young girls to reach for the stars," President Barack Obama said in a statement.

NASA Administrator Charles Bolden, a former astronaut, said Ride "broke barriers with grace and professionalism — and literally changed the face of America's space program."

"The nation has lost one of its finest leaders, teachers and explorers," he said in a statement. Ride was a physicist, writer of five science books for children and president of her own company. She had also been a professor of physics at the University of California in San Diego. She was selected as an astronaut candidate in 1978, the same year she earned her doctorate in physics from Stanford University. She beat out five women to be the first American female in space. Her first flight came two decades after the Soviets sent a woman into space

Last Flight of the Space Shuttle Discovery

Today marked the last flight of the Space Shuttle Discovery before landing at Dulles International Airport in Washington, DC. Afterward it was taken to the Air and Space Museum at the Smithsonian. Hail and Farewell, Space Shuttle Program!!! *is sad*

From Washington Post

The space shuttle Discovery soared over the Washington Monument, the White House and the Capitol in a high-flying salute to the nation’s capital Tuesday. The world’s most traveled spaceship, hitching a ride on top a Boeing 747 jet, took a couple of leisurely spins at an easy-to-spot 1,500 feet around Washington after a flight from Cape Canaveral, Fla.
housands packed the National Mall to watch the pair swoop by.
“Look at that — that thing is mammoth,” said Terri Jacobsen of Bethesda, Md. She brought her 12-year-old home-schooled son to the mall to watch the flyover.
The shuttle-jet combo was set to land at Dulles International Airport. On Thursday, it will be towed to its permanent installation at the Smithsonian’s annex in northern Virginia.