Hurricane Sandy, the "Frankenstorm" About to go Ashore

Sandy isn't a normal storm - it's a Mega Monster Storm. Not only is it destroying piers, boats, beaches, and homes along the complete Eastern Shore of the United States, but it's also going to bring in a blizzard of snow - 1-2 FEET - in the Appalachian Mountain region. And then it's going to move into Canada and God only knows what sort of weather they will receive.

I'm saying a prayer for everyone in the path of this storm. Stay safe, and stay home.

Livecam overlooking Evacuation Zone (UPDATE: Off Last Time I Checked)

Alternate Cam at Brooklyn Bridge

NY Times Live Cam

Morristown, New Jersey Cam

NBC News Hurricane Liveblog

Washington Post Liveblog

Guardian UK Liveblog

Huff Post Live Blog

Latest Advisory on 2 p.m. ET Monday:

Hurricane #Sandy is estimated to leave 11 million without power -- WATCH: bloom.bg/SoBZ35
— Bloomberg News (@BloombergNews) October 29, 2012

Airlines have canceled more than 12,000 flights along the East Coast due to Hurricane #Sandy: on.wsj.com/SoHoau
— Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) October 29, 2012

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
200 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
...SANDY MOVING MORE QUICKLY TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
...LANDFALL EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.3N 73.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OFbTHE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS.
THIS INCLUDES THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT... THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

OTHER COASTAL AND INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 38.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST. SANDY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 28 MPH...
44 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST BY EARLY EVENING.

REPORTS FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL OR WINTERTIME LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS TRANSITION
WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. SANDY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING WELL INLAND.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM... MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 485 MILES...780 KM. SUSTAINED WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE OCCURRING FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...AND INCLUDING ALL OF THE CHESAPEAKE AND DELAWARE BAYS. A WEATHERFLOW INSTRUMENT RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 54 MPH...87 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 63 MPH...102 KM/H...ON LONG ISLAND AT EATONS NECK NEW YORK.

ALSO...A UNIVERSITY OF CONNECTICUT BUOY LOCATED IN WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 38 MPH...61 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 54 MPH...87 KM/H...AT A HEIGHT OF 10 FEET ABOVE THE WATER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...GALE/TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER OTHER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND...BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT
ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS
BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT
CAPE COD TO THE MA/NH BORDER INCLUDING CAPE COD BAY...2 TO 4 FT
MA/NH BORDER TO THE U.S./CANADA BORDER...1 TO 3 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION... ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY. FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SNOWFALL..SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER...WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MARYLAND.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AT 300 AND 400 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART



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Mitt has Forrest Gump Moments in Louisiana Flood

source: facebook

Just when you think Mitt Romney couldn't possibly sound more clueless than he has in the past, he surprises us with new depths of confusion. He left the Republican Convention and went straight to Louisiana to see the aftermath of Hurricane Isaac. He could offer no help to the victims since right now he holds no office, but he probably thought it would be a good photo-op for himself and Governor Bobby Jindal.

Well, the pictures are pretty good, but Mitt's responses - not so much.

Washington Post

“We really appreciate you coming here,” Jindal said.

“I appreciate the chance to be here,” Romney replied. “I have a lot of questions for you.” The two discussed evacuation procedures and the contributions of the Red Cross, Salvation Army and other organizations.

“Did the water come from the sky, or the rivers, or the ocean?” Romney asked. Jindal’s response was not audible to reporters.

Well, that quote is worthy of Forrest Gump right there. I would love to know Jindal's response, LOL.

We've been through every kind of rain there is. Little bitty stinging rain...and big old fat rain. Rain that flew in sideways. And sometimes rain even seemed to come straight up from underneath. Shoot, it even rained at night.
~ Forrest Gump


I think this is another example of surrogate fail, since one of his advisers could have shown him a map or explained the difference between rain and storm surge. Maybe a Google Earth Map of Lake Ponchatrain. And that big river over thar? That be the Old Man, I mean, the Mississippi. You can imagine him saying "Oh, it's so big! Are you sure that's is a river? In Michigan rivers are the right size."

*sigh*

And unfortunately Mitt had some mind-numbingly bad advice for victims:

From AFP

There, with the world's media looking on, he met 22-year-old mother-of-two Ashley Vegas, whose home was destroyed by a 12-foot (four-meter) wall of water, and whose bare feet contrasted oddly with Romney's suede loafers.

His advice for the suddenly homeless family? Seek a bailout from the US federal government's disaster agency FEMA by calling its 211 emergency hotline.

Vegas was thankful for the lifeline, open to many in Louisiana since Romney's opponent President Barack Obama declared a federal emergency there earlier this week, freeing up government rescue funds for beleaguered communities.

"I think he's a very good man," Vegas volunteered. "He's here to help everybody and do what he can."

Yeah, call FEMA - if they haven't been defunded by the Republicans led by Paul Ryan. LOL. (sorry, that's not really too funny) But notice that Obama was the one who freed up the funding for Louisiana at the request of Bobby Jindal, which is ironic in itself, since Jindal's tendency has been to turn down "hand-outs" from the Federal Government.

Romney gave his bad advice to more than one person:

Mediaite quoting AP

When faced with one of the victims of the flood, however, Romney came up well short in the empathy department. From The Associated Press:

Romney and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) spent close to an hour meeting with first responders and local officials. Romney shook hands with National Guardsmen outside the U.S. Post Office and talked with a local resident, Jodie Chiarello, 42, who lost her home in Isaac’s flooding.

“He just told me to, um, there’s assistance out there,” Chiarello said of her conversation with Romney. “He said, go home and call 211.” That’s a public service number offered in many states.

Chiarello said she will likely seek some other shelter because her home was submerged in the flooding.

In Romney’s defense, at least he didn’t offer her a quarter for the payphone.
For a candidate whom voters already don’t think understands their struggles, who is on an already cynical-looking tour of a disaster area, and whose party has a famously bad record of helping people during natural disasters, this is not a great headline. You could say, in fairness to Romney, that at least he was trying to help, but when someone tells you their house just got submerged in a flood, telling them to go home isn’t actually all that helpful.

source: Reuters

Levees Overtopped in Louisiana ~ "Worse than Katrina"

Last night Hurricane Isaac came ashore in New Orleans, then enigmatically bumped right back out to sea where it went stationary for many hours. That means that it has rained, and rained, and rained all night over one area with band after band of rain and wind. So the levees are being overtopped, and some places that didn't flood in Katrina are underwater now. This could be a total disaster, and my heart just breaks for the people of New Orleans!!! This is only a Category One storm, but the rain amounts are astronomical - 20 inches or more.

Isaac Reaches Hurricane Status Near New Orleans Coast

Almost exactly 7 years to the day that deadly Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans, Louisiana, the storm known as Isaac reached Category 1 Hurricane status today in nearly the same location. Heavy surf is a problem all along the Gulf Coast from NOLA to the panhandle of Florida.

CNN: Isaac Poised for Landfall on Katrina Anniversary

Isaac is expected to be weaker than Katrina, which came ashore as a Category 3 hurricane with 125-mph winds. But New Orleans could start to feel tropical storm force winds by midnight Monday, and while Isaac may veer off its currently projected course, "It seems to be settling into a pathway and a speed that is becoming predictable," Landrieu said.

"It is quite ironic that we have a hurricane threatening us on the seventh anniversary of Katrina," he said. But he added that as of Monday afternoon, "There is nothing this storm will bring us that we are not capable of handling."

Most of Katrina's nearly 1,800 deaths occurred when the protective levees around New Orleans failed, flooding the city. But Landrieu said the levees have had $10 billion in improvements since 2005, and the city's pump stations have backup generators ready in case of electrical outages.

I have to laugh at Governor Bobby Jindal - even though Obama is declaring emergency funds available before the storm hits, he wants the Federal Government to pay more for their preparatiions. LOL ~ so much for hating "big gummint hand-outs" which Jindal has turned down, but only when the money is for the unemployed or for women's health care.

I kind of love it that all the Southern governors had to rush back to their states from the RNC in Tampa. I'm not going to echo Pat Roberson by saying God is doing this to them, but I do believe in the wheel of fortune, and what goes around comes around. Karma is a bitch. Tomorrow, everyone will be thinking of Katrina and the failure of George Bush as Mitt Romney makes his acceptance speech.

Isaac is a scary storm, but there is onee silver lining because the drought-cursed Midwest may get some much-needed rain in the coming days. I really hope that happens! And meanwhile, I hope folks in NOLA head for higher ground.

What is a "Derecho" Anyway?

"The Line Storm," by John Steuart Curry, 1897-1946

Lately there have been several lines of devastating storms moving through the Ohio Valley, and meteorologists have been referring to them as a "derecho." I've lived in the U.S. all my life and never heard that term, even though we routinely get straight-line winds and severe weather here in the Southeast. They never mentioned it last year on the day of the April tornadoes, although that line of storms lasted for hundreds of miles, which makes me think that tornadoes trump derechos. Officially, the terrible line of storms that passed over the Northeast last week were not part of a derecho:

Pitch black now but 10 mins ago @twcbreaking @NewYorkology #derecho #NYC twitter.com/davidbrunonyc/…
— david bruno (@davidbrunonyc) July 26, 2012

LA Times Story

Joey Picca , a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, said in a telephone interview with the Los Angeles Times from his office in Upton N.Y. on Long Island. “What we saw yesterday wasn’t a derecho in the traditional sense because it wasn’t widespread enough. Although we did see a large line of thunderstorms, it was lacking the true intensity you would like to see in a derecho.”
A derecho is defined as an event that has wind gusts of at least 58 mph and leaves a swath of damage for a minimum of 240 miles, according to the U.S. Storm Prediction Center.

So the phenomenon is actually rare, but with global warming raising the mercury it it could certainly happen again, so let's get educated by going directly to NOAA for the definition:

Definition of a derecho
A derecho (pronounced similar to "deh-REY-cho" in English, or pronounced phonetically as "") is a widespread, long-lived wind storm that is associated with a band of rapidly moving showers or thunderstorms. Although a derecho can produce destruction similar to that of tornadoes, the damage typically is directed in one direction along a relatively straight swath. As a result, the term "straight-line wind damage" sometimes is used to describe derecho damage. By definition, if the wind damage swath extends more than 240 miles (about 400 kilometers) and includes wind gusts of at least 58 mph (93 km/h) or greater along most of its length, then the event may be classified as a derecho.

Origin of the term "derecho"
The word "derecho" was coined by Dr. Gustavus Hinrichs, a physics professor at the University of Iowa, in a paper published in the American Meteorological Journal in 1888. A defining excerpt from the paper can be seen in this figure showing a derecho crossing Iowa on July 31, 1877. Hinrichs chose this terminology for thunderstorm-induced straight-line winds as an analog to the word tornado.

"Derecho" is a Spanish word that can be defined as "direct" or "straight ahead." (Click here to hear a pronounciation of the word "derecho"). In contrast, the word "tornado" is thought by some, including Hinrichs, to have been derived from the Spanish word "tornar," which means "to turn." Because derecho is a Spanish word, the plural term is "derechos;" there is no letter "e" after the letter "o."

A web page about Gustavus Hinrichs has been created by Ray Wolf of the Davenport, Iowa National Weather Service Forecast Office. The page provides information on Hinrichs' background, and on his development of the term "derecho" in the late 1800s. Wolf's page also briefly discusses how the term "derecho" has come into more common use in recent years.