Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Polls are Tightening As Dems Have Hope for Biden-Ryan Debate


I usually enjoy writing headlines, but this one makes me cringe. With just a few weeks to go, Obama has lost his lead in the election, mainly due to what was seen as his lackluster performance in last week's debate. My own take is that some viewers who have been checked out for the past few months took Romney's "enthusiasm" as somehow more honest than Obama's rather understated way of talking. And it didn't help that moderator Jim Lehrer was asleep at the wheel and let Romney bully him, but oh well . . . here we are now.

A PEW Poll released on October 8th nearly drove some Dems over the edge:
Snark Amendment: Le Pew: Dems Panic Over One Stinky Poll

Unfortunately, other polls show an increasing problem for President Obama since he has lost his big lead and the race is nearly a dead heat. But there is still hope that things might turn around quickly after tomorrow night's debate between VP Joe Biden and VP wannabe Paul Ryan. Fingers crossed.

From The Daily Beast
. . . while hile these numbers are painful for Obama supporters, the election is close to a tie overall. The Pew survey is just one poll, capturing one moment in time. Consider Monday’s Washington Times/Zogby poll, which showed Romney and Obama in an effective tie, with Romney slightly ahead by 45.1 to 44.5 percent. If you factor in Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, Obama is actually ahead by half a point, 45.5 to 45 percent.
Meanwhile, Rasmussen’s tracking numbers also show a tie, with both candidates at 48 percent. The Gallup numbers put Romney only slightly ahead at 49 to 47 percent. And yesterday, Rasmussen reported that 55 percent of likely voters still think Obama is probably going to win in November.

The electoral map also continues to shape up in the President’s favor. Although Romney is ahead by one in Ohio, according to the latest ARG survey, he trails by three in both Pennsylvania (PDF) and Virginia (PDF).

From Nate Silver's 538 Blog
Following another day of strong polling on Tuesday, Mitt Romney advanced into the best position in the FiveThirtyEight forecast since the party conventions. His chances of winning the Electoral College are now 28.8 percent in the forecast, his highest since Aug. 29. For the first time since Aug. 28, President Obama is projected to win fewer than 300 electoral votes. And Mr. Obama’s projected margin of victory in the national popular vote — 2.0 percentage points — represents the closest the race has been since June 27.
The forecast model is not quite ready to jump on board with the notion that the race has become a literal toss-up; Mr. Romney will need to maintain his bounce for a few more days, or extend it into high-quality polls of swing states, before we can be surer about that.
But we are ready to conclude that one night in Denver undid most of the advantage Mr. Obama had appeared to gain in September.

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