Friday, September 7, 2012

Polling Shows: Obama Bounces, Mitt Deflated


 Here is Nate Silver's graph as of today, September 7, 2012 from the New York Times.

 As you can see, Obama (the blue line) is on the upswing, while Romney is going down, down, down.

And Silver just posted more good news for Obama - he is bouncing in the polls. Hints of Obama Convention Bounce
Mr. Obama has gained two or three points in polls conducted essentially halfway through his convention suggests that his gains could eventually be larger, perhaps on the order of five points, once the surveys fully reflect post-convention data. Typically, the bounce grows over the course of the convention, peaking in interviews conducted just a day or two after it.

The caveat is that — and yes, this reflects my personal, subjective view — I thought the speeches delivered by Mrs. Obama and Mr. Clinton were stronger than the one given by Mr. Obama himself, and that Democrats’ momentum seemed to peak on Wednesday night rather than on Thursday. Then, Mr. Obama got a mediocre jobs report on Friday.

The better question, then, is not whether the movement in the polls toward Mr. Obama is “real,” but rather how much more of it (if any) he will get, and how long it persists.

Obviously, no one knows if the bounce will persist, but still - it's better than Romney, who got no bounce - nada, zip, zero - from his own Convention.

Silver writes:
What’s a bit more worrisome for Mr. Romney is that Gallup’s reporting of the head-to-head results in its poll occurs over a lengthy seven-day window, meaning that only a minority of the interviews in the poll were conducted before the major speeches at the Democratic convention.
In fact, most of the interviews in the poll were conducted just after the Republican convention in Tampa, Fla., a period in which Mr. Romney should have been enjoying a convention bounce of his own.

The Gallup Organization came to the same conclusion, writing on September 4:
Mitt Romney received no bounce from last week's Republican National Convention, as the 46% of registered voters who supported him in Aug. 31-Sept. 3 Daily tracking is essentially the same as the 47% who preferred him in Aug. 24-27 tracking, the four days preceding the convention.

. . . The lack of a bounce is consistent with Gallup's immediate post-GOP convention reaction poll, showing Americans giving Romney's acceptance speech, and the convention more generally, rather muted ratings.
Gallup's standard seven-day rolling average of voter presidential preferences has shown Obama at 47% and Romney at 46% each day since Aug. 29.

But as of today, Obama is bouncing for Gallup, too:

Sep 4-6, 2012 – Updates daily at 1 p.m. ET; reflects one-day change

Obama Approval
Obama Disapproval

Presidential Election


7-day rolling average

Of course people still need to VOTE ~ so get registered, get your proper ID, find your polling place, and show up on election day!!!

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